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Is 30 Passing Attempts Or Less The Magic Number For Roethlisberger?

Interesting talk this morning on Trib Live Radio as to the record of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was discussed when he throws over a certain amount of times during a game. I researched Pro Football Reference to pull his regular season stats since 2004 and have them below sorted by attempts below with the cutoff of games in which he passed 31 or more times.

The magic number with Roethlisberger appears to be 30 or less attempts a game as he is 51-9 during the regular season when throwing 30 times or less and 18-22 when throwing more than 30 times. Breaking it down farther above 30 attempts, Roethlisberger is 8-14 when he throws 35 or more times during the regular season.

Now of course the argument will be that he has to throw more when he is behind. The last two columns represent the score after 3 quarters and whether or not the Steelers were ahead, behind or tied at that time. When they were ahead, the Steelers were 2-2 when Roethlisberger threw 31 or more times in a game. 6-15 when trailing after 3 quarters and 2-4 when entering the 4th quarter tied. Only 8 times were the Steelers and Roethlisberger down more than a touchdown entering the 4th quarter and they lost all 8 times in these games based on this stat. He was 6-7 when only down a touchdown or less in these games.

There are a few more variables involved such as run/pass balance through the first 3 quarters and how effective the running game was up until the 4th quarter, but it can not be ignored that the Steelers are less than .500 when he has to throw 31 more a times in a game. I will dig this down further in a future post after I compile more stats. I also plan on comparing this around the league as well.

YEARWEEKOPPSCORECOMPATTCOMP %YDSTDINTRATEYPA4QSB/A/T
2006 8 DEN L 20-31 38 54 70.40% 433 1 3 77.2 8.0 17-21 B
2010 9 NWE L 26-39 30 49 61.20% 387 3 1 97.9 7.9 3-23 B
2009 14 GNB W 37-36 29 46 63.00% 503 3 0 121.9 10.9 24-14 A
2010 14 NYJ L 17-22 23 44 52.30% 264 1 0 78.2 6.0 17-17 T
2006 10 CLE W 24-20 25 44 56.80% 272 2 3 61.9 6.2 3-10 B
2009 1 TEN W 13-10 33 43 76.70% 363 1 2 89.6 8.4 7-7 T
2009 10 KAN L 24-27 32 42 76.20% 398 3 2 109.0 9.5 17-17 T
2008 9 IND L 20-24 29 41 70.70% 280 0 3 59.0 6.8 17-17 T
2005 12 CIN L 31-38 29 41 70.70% 386 3 3 94.2 9.4 24-31 B
2006 11 BAL L 0-27 21 41 51.20% 214 0 2 46.2 5.2 0-24 B
2008 10 SDG W 11-10 31 41 75.60% 308 0 0 96.4 7.5 7-8 B
2011 1 BAL L 7-35 22 41 53.70% 280 1 3 52.9 6.8 7-32 B
2008 5 JAX W 26-21 26 41 63.40% 309 3 1 100.6 7.5 20-14 A
2008 14 BAL W 13-9 22 40 55.00% 246 1 0 81.9 6.2 3-9 B
2009 9 CIN L 12-18 20 40 50.00% 174 0 1 51.5 4.4 9-12 B
2008 15 TEN L 14-31 25 39 64.10% 329 2 2 86.4 8.4 14-17 B
2006 3 CIN L 20-28 18 39 46.20% 208 0 3 30.7 5.3 17-14 A
2010 12 BAL W 13-10 22 38 57.90% 253 1 1 75.9 6.7 3-10 B
2006 7 OAK L 13-20 25 37 67.60% 301 1 4 61.7 8.1 6-13 B
2007 6 DEN L 28-31 24 35 68.60% 290 4 2 108.0 8.3 14-28 B
2009 2 CHI L 14-17 23 35 65.70% 221 1 1 80.8 6.3 14-7 A
2009 6 CLE W 27-14 23 35 65.70% 417 2 1 113.6 11.9 24-14 A
2007 9 CLE W 31-28 23 34 67.60% 278 2 1 99.9 8.2 16-21 B
2007 2 BUF W 26-3 21 34 61.80% 242 1 1 80.8 7.1 19-3 A
2009 15 BAL W 23-20 17 33 51.50% 259 1 1 75.2 7.9 20-20 T
2008 13 DAL W 20-13 17 33 51.50% 204 1 0 80.9 6.2 3-13 B
2008 12 NWE W 33-10 17 33 51.50% 179 2 1 75.2 5.4 23-10 A
2009 4 SDG W 38-28 26 33 78.80% 333 2 0 128.9 10.1 28-7 A
2010 11 BUF W 19-16 20 33 60.60% 246 0 0 83.6 7.5 13-7 A
2010 13 CIN W 23-7 21 33 63.60% 258 0 0 87.7 7.8 13-7 A
2007 4 ARI L 14-21 17 32 53.10% 244 2 2 72.9 7.6 7-7 T
2006 2 JAX L 0-9 17 32 53.10% 141 0 2 38.7 4.4 0-3 B
2007 13 NWE L 13-34 19 32 59.40% 187 1 0 86.3 5.8 13-31 B
2007 14 JAX L 22-29 15 32 46.90% 142 3 0 90.9 4.4 7-22 B
2009 13 CLE L 6-13 18 32 56.30% 201 0 0 75.1 6.3 6-13 B
2007 12 CIN W 24-10 21 32 65.60% 184 2 2 75.5 5.8 24-10 A
2010 15 CAR W 27-3 22 32 68.80% 320 1 0 111.5 10.0 27-0 A
2006 4 SDG L 13-23 20 31 64.50% 220 0 2 58.5 7.1 13-17 B
2006 15 BAL L 7-31 15 31 48.40% 156 1 2 47.2 5.0 7-21 B
2009 3 CIN L 20-23 22 31 71.00% 276 1 1 95.6 8.9 20-9 A
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