The final Adjusted Net Yards Per Passing Attempt Differential Stats are now compiled for the 2011 NFL season and quite a reflective stat it has been this year. The top 10 teams in differential made the playoffs this year. The two stragglers are the Cincinnati Bengals, who finished 18th, and the Denver Broncos, who finished 28th.
The top 4 offensive teams using the stat headed into the playoffs are the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints. The top 3 defenses for the season are also headed to the playoffs and they are the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. No real surprises there.
Looking at the playoff teams on the AFC side, it would take a near miracle for the Denver Broncos to make it to the Super Bowl based on their differential stat, let alone win at. Only once in the last 9 seasons has that happened with a team having a negative differential in the regular season and it was the New York Giants back in 2007 that accomplished it. It should be noted that they did so with a much better quarterback than Tim Tebow. The Broncos are also have 1.12 worse differential than the Giants did that season.
Also over the last 9 seasons, the team with the lowest regular season differential score to win the Super Bowl, outside of the 2007 Giants, were the 2005 Steelers, who finished that regular season with a 1.92 differential. Only 4 teams head into the playoffs this year with a 1.90 differential stat or better and 3 of those 4 teams are in the AFC, with the other being the league leading Packers.
Based on the quarterback situation in Houston right now, you really have to think the Packers will face either the Patriots or the Steelers in the Super Bowl. The Steelers will have to fix their end of the year offensive production to get there, but their defense could carry their much better than average offense just the same. I will say that the recent injuries to their secondary will play a huge role going forward should they take care of the Broncos in the AFC wild card.
The most dangerous team on the NFC side could be the Giants. In my opinion they are the team that has the best shot at knocking off the Packers in the playoffs, but it will not be an easy task for sure.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were just plain awful on both sides of the ball this year and the Carolina Panthers put up the 11th best offensive ANYPPA stat this year with rookie quarterback Cam Newton under center. The Panthers need to just fix that defense of theirs that ranked 31st in ANYPPA. Another interesting fact is that San Francisco 49ers with first year head coach Jim Harbaugh beat his brother John Harbaugh of the Ravens in the stat.
Let the playoffs begin.
|2011 SEASON||PASS OFFENSE STATS||PASS DEFENSE STATS||DIFF|