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TOX Stat Results Of The 2012-13 Playoffs Leading Up To Super Bowl XLVII


We still have a pretty good wait until the San Francisco 49ers will play the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII so now is as good of time as any to look back at the playoff games as it relates to the TOX stats.

The TOX stat measures the difference between turnovers and explosive plays in each game and a team with a plus two TOX differential should win the game 80% of the time.

In the 10 playoff games that have been played thus far there has been a final differential of plus two or better in each and every one of them. Only once has the team with the plus number lost the game and that happened in the Divisional Round when the Atlanta Falcons beat the Seattle Seahawks on a last second field goal.

That makes the stat 9-1 thus far in the playoffs for a 90% win rate.

So how important was the turnover battle alone in each and every one of these games? The team that won the turnover battle outright also won the game. That happened in 7 of the 10 games.

The Ravens head into the Super Bowl with 18 explosive plays to their credit in the 3 games that they have played and have only tuned the ball over 3 times. The 49ers have only played 2 games so far, but have 13 explosive plays to their credit while turning over the ball just 2 times.

TEAM EXP TO DIFF TEAM EXP TO DIFF TOX WIN
CIN 2 1 1 HOU 4 1 3 HOU +2 HOU
MIN 3 3 0 GB 4 0 4 GB +4 GB
IND 5 2 3 BAL 8 2 6 BAL +3 BAL
SEA 6 1 5 WAS 1 2 -1 SEA +6 SEA
BAL 6 1 5 DEN 4 3 1 BAL +4 BAL
GB 3 2 1 SF 6 1 5 SF +4 SF
SEA 9 2 7 ATL 5 2 3 SEA +4 ATL
HOU 6 1 5 NE 7 0 7 NE +2 NE
SF 7 1 6 ATL 6 2 4 SF +2 SF
BAL 4 0 4 NE 4 3 1 BAL +3 BAL

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