A Look Back At The First 2013 Mock Drafts Of The Major Media Draftniks

With mock draft season now back in high gear, I thought it would be fun on this lazy Sunday to take a look back at how the major media draftniks did with their first real mock drafts last offseason.

For this exercise, I pulled the mock drafts of Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler and Rob Rang as they seem to be the ones that most everybody tends to point to during the offseason. You can see their dated mocks below along with the actual first round results of the 2013 NFL Draft.

As you can see, Kiper, Brugler and Rang all had 20 players that ultimately went in the first round while Jeremiah had 19. McShay had the least correct with 18, but in his defense, his first “real” mock came out in the middle of December. That explains a few of his choices being underclassmen that wound up not even declaring. He still hit 18 first rounders, however, and even slotted two players correctly, albeit to the wrong teams.

What’s interesting is that all five of these major media draftniks didn’t have D.J. Hayden, E.J. Manuel, Justin Pugh, Kyle Long, Desmond Trufant, Datone Jones or Travis Frederick in their mocks. In addition, all five also missed with Manti Te’o, Damontre Moore and Johnathan Hankins.

ACTUALKIPER 1/16/13McShay 12/12/12
30A.OgletreeSTL30S.Floyd SF30T.AustinNE
Jeremiah 1/14/13Brugler 1/21/13Rang 1/21/13

  • Shannon Stephenson

    I had Manuel, Trufant and Jones in the 1st but also had Moore and Hankins

  • Caesar

    Maybe it should tell us something that Jarvis Jones was projected to go before the Steelers pick in each one of these, yet he somehow ended up falling.

  • Rob H

    I think what this article illustrates nicely is that when it comes to who the Steelers (and most other teams) are going to pick, these mocks are almost always wrong, yet so many fans lose their minds when they read them, it really is funny to watch.
    The few that I recall seeing that were correct, were done by Steeler writers, and they were done right before the draft.

  • Jazz

    And J.Jones fell because of his poor workout at the combine, the fear of what GM’s and Coaches heard about his work ethic, and his medical concerns as well. Yet the Steelers jumped all over this guy at #17. I didn’t like the pick then, I still don’t like it. They clearly drafted for need instead of drafting the best player on the board. Reports out of Pittsburgh is that Mr. Rooney will seize some of the power that Tomlin and Colbert has had in recent drafts. I like it too, any fool can see that Colbert has drafted poorly in the middle rounds of the draft. The Steelers need depth; 2013 looked fairly well, I think drafting a QB in RD 4 was just stupid!

  • Rob H

    Just out of curiosity, where did you see these reports? I don’t recall ever seeing bad reports about his work ethic before the draft, and I’ve only read good things about it since he’s been on the team.
    I definitely haven’t seen anything on Rooney taking any control from Tomlin/Colbert, and I’d think something that big (if valid) would be all over every football site on the internet.

  • Callentown

    Dave, love the concept BUT, why not use the mock drafts that these prognosticators used just before the draft when all of the latest information was in, in April, 2013??

    Seems that would be a better judge of how close they were. Just sayin..

  • bonairsfavoriteson

    every time I look at Jarvis Jones, I see a tall , slow, safety.

  • SteelersDepot

    Why not look at their first ones as well? It’s a long offseason, skippy. I have their final mocks as well.

  • Callentown

    IMO, because so much changes in the offseason – FA, coaches moving – that those first mocks seem to be just a far-out guess.

    The last mocks, while far from being reliable predictors, are at least closer to what is the latest-greatest info available.

    Anyway, I would find value in those April mocks from the past as you compared them, more so than the early ones.

    Thanks for the response Dave. Skippy? Call me Chili..

  • Eddie Cruz

    I know a lot of people were not very happy with j jones being selected last year. All I can say is that Lawrence Timmons had a slow start and now he’s a stud. I’ll give him 2 more seasons before I judge the type of player he will be for us.

  • Brian Miller

    I don’t care how early in this process these mock drafts were, how can you trust anyone’s mock draft when they have Geno Smith going #1 overall???

  • Brian Miller

    Not sure what the skippy means…a tad condescending no?

  • William Weaver

    Agree. Most rookies don’t play on defense. He is ahead of that curve at least. I believe he makes 3-4 pro bowls before he is done. I am not worried about him for some reason.

  • dgh57

    To show one example of how important the NFL Combine is to these early Mocks is that all 5 have Demontre Moore going anywhere between 2 and 6th in the 1st rd. and he ended up getting drafted in the 3td rd. or 81st overall by the Giants! His poor showing at the Combine with 12 reps on the bench and 4.95 time in the 40 caused him to slide in the draft. So I don’t put to much weight into these pre-combine Mocks.

  • Milliken Steeler

    When have you seen a 250lb safety? He was 245 right out of college and has been working on his strength. Weights build muscle and muscle adds weight. I would not be surprised to see him report to camp at 250-255.

    I keep hearing people talk about 40 times. He is not a QB nor is he a CB or Safety. Jarvis is explosive off the ball and plays mostly in 10 to 20 yard area. If he is chasing people down field 40 and 50 yards, we’re doing something wrong.

  • greeny

    Spinal stenosis is the reason he didn’t go to USC and the reason most NFL teams passed on him. His 200lb body frame speaks for itself. 1 sack this year is flat out horrible….no excuses

  • Nolrog

    We do drop OLBs into coverage sometimes, and if he has to speed rush, I wonder if his lack of foot speed has an impact. I’m still optimistic on him though. I think with a good off-season of hard work and building strength, he’ll be ready to take the next step next year.

  • Nolrog

    Considering rookies usually don’t play on defense because of the complexity of the system, I’m happy with his production this year.

  • Nolrog

    Going the other direction, Dontare Poe was projected to go to us at #24 in 2012, and based on his combine, he went #11 to the Chiefs (and looks to be a real good one too.)

  • Nolrog

    Mock drafts at this point in time are nothing more than conversation pieces. Once we get into free agency, roster cuts and the combine then we’ll have a lot more information to base projections on (and more accurate projections as well.)

  • Jason White

    It’s kinda sad that I did better with my 1st round mock than McShay and Kiper did. I’m already working on my initial 1st round mock for this year. I’m definitely gonna compare it to their mocks when I’m done with my final mock which will be after the combine and after the bulk of the free agents have been signed. I had 14 picks right in 2013.

  • Jason White

    Jarvis Jones exceeded my expectations because quite honestly I didn’t have any for him in 2013.

  • Rob H

    The spinal stenosis isn’t what I was asking about, everyone knew about that. As to his performance this year, it was better than most rookies in this defense. Polamalu did next to nothing of note his first year, nor did Porter, Harrison, Heyward, Timmons…I could go on and on. I’ll be the first one to call him out if he shows no improvement next year, but this rush to judgment on guy’s after their first season is at best amusing. Earlier this season I read more than one person on this board say DeCastro was a bust, and last year it was Heyward and Worlids.

  • Jason White

    And really his play in 2013 will prove to be positive for him moving forward. He certainly gained experience and he now knows what he needs to work on.The Steelers got a steal then and I believe Jarvis will prove that.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Are you surprised? Drafniks are idiots. See my post above.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Since this applies to this thread better:

    Lesson to learn or re-learn in the coming months: DON’T listen to draftniks. They are STUPID and see everything through the polarized glasses of “the measurables”. I call the pre-draft process the “Hype Train” because draftniks celebrate every player as the next Pro Bowler and focus on the positives too much and assume a player has no negatives. Hence, they are as far from ‘realistic’ as you can get. Look at the tape for yourself and make your own conclusions. If you want any confirmation Google all the archives of Kiper, McShay, etc.’s mock drafts and say the glowing things they say about JaMarcus, Leaf, Couch, Carr, etc. After they are drafted and bust out, everyone forgets about their glowing assessments so it’s not their problem anymore – there’s no accountability with draftniks.

  • Jason White

    It’s too long. I already crave Steelers football.

  • 20Stoney

    He just can’t seem to help it.

  • StarSpangledSteeler

    Great post, Dave.

    Just a reminder that analysts (and fans) get ideas in their heads early (based on reputation) that are not accurate come draft day.

    The best GMs look extensively at game tape, combine numbers, and UPSIDE in their particular system.

    If you go back and look at Woodley’s first few years of production, he was a steal at 2.15. He slipped in the draft because he was viewed as too short for a 4-3 DE, but fit very nicely as a strong side 3-4 OLB.

  • Caesar

    So tired of that nonsense excuse. Every other team in the league is able to get production from rookies. You mean to tell me the Steelers have a defense that is that much more complex than every other professional team? It isn’t “complexity of the system”; it is stubbornness about an outmoded personnel philosophy and inability to foster acclimation for young players.

  • Steve

    Woodley may have been a steal for the first few years but has been a bust since signing that Big fat contract. He need to take a page from Troy and get them legs in shape to play before he gets cut.

  • sean mcmartin

    It is a joke that the Steelers rookies cannot possibly play in their defensive schemes. They better hire another D-coordinator who can get production from rookies, Tell that joke to seattle , Green bay and the patsies.
    back to back 8-8 is not the standard I hold for the black and gold.

  • Weiss Chad

    if you watch his college tape all i see is a guy who lined up where there were mismatches and runs around guys.I hope he gets stronger and bigger.Im far from throeing towel in on him though.Ive never heard anything but great thingd about his work ethic

  • Weiss Chad

    I would have to disagree.I believe rookies dont play much on this defense becausr they cant dethrone the starters.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Upside is very overrated and a facet of the NBA’s horrid drafts in which there is no one game-ready to play despite draftniks hyping them all to be. Most players drafted for their upside don’t make it; only a few do. A fit in their system is more apt.

    Woodley…no question he has gotten lazy since he got his money. I suspect same will happen to Mikey in Miami. But who knows how much has to do with the lack of a Deebo on the opposite side.

  • Weiss Chad

    imo walter football is better at mocks than any of these guys.Except steelers depot of course.Everyone else is a far second

  • Jazz

    In reference to his poor work ethic; it was all over NFL Network last year prior to the draft. His own coaches even said he had a poor work ethic, didn’t practice well but always came up big in the games on Saturdays. He was weak at the combine as well. The Bench Press? I think he did something like 16 Reps, it was talked about quite often last year in February. In reference to Mr. Rooney taking back some of Tomlin’s authority in the draft? Ed Bouchette reported it last year around Sep / Oct time frame when the Steelers were on their 4 game losing streak. He spoke about how Tomlin might not have as much pull in the drafting room as he did in previous years.

  • Nolrog

    Yeah, that’s exactly how I feel.

  • Nolrog

    According to a SD article from back then, he did 20 reps.

  • SFIC

    My favorite mocks are from the ones that have the players I covet on them. 😉 lol
    I agree with you. I’ve been checking out mocks for years and WalterFootball is by far most sensible. The only thing I don’t like about their site is their positional rankings often do not include all the players who will be drafted. I wish they had time to prepare more individual analysis too. They still do a great job.

  • Derick L Young

    it’s not Kevin Colbert, we should know that.

  • 243546

    Rookies play. They don’t usually start.

  • 243546

    The do play, they just don’t start. They start out as role players in sub-packages, and their role is increased as they gain experience. Woodley had 4 sacks as a rookie. Worilds had 2. Hood and Heyward each had 1. Since Lebeau came back to Pittsburgh, the only high round pick who didn’t have a sack as a rookie, was Timmons. That shouldn’t be a surprise, considering Timmons missed most of the off-season nursing a groin injury, and the coaches were still trying to decide if they wanted him to play OLB or ILB.

  • 243546

    Different situation.Timmons missed most of the off-season because of a groin injury, and the coaches weren’t sure what position they wanted him to play.

  • 243546

    Actually, they do play. JJ had the same number of sacks as Ziggy Hood in his rookie season.

  • Weiss Chad

    All I heard about was jones out training w ike taylor before the draft when he said “he wont slip past steelers”

  • Jazz

    I agree, I’m going to paying close attention to Jarvis Jones in 2014. If he shows up to cam still looking like a weakling, it may be time for concerns.


    We took the wrong backer. Ogletree is a beast.