Categorized | 2014 Draft, Article, Prediction

Compensatory Draft Pick Prognosticator Predicts Three For Steelers This Offseason


As Jimmy Kempski of Philly.com pointed out in a Friday blog post, his good friend Craig Turner has become quite the expert at predicting compensatory draft picks that teams will receive for the net loss of their free agents. In fact, last year Turner correctly predicted the right team and round of 24 of the total of 32 compensatory picks awarded by the league, and was off by one round on five others.

Turner has now released his predictions for this offseason and has the Pittsburgh Steelers receiving three compensatory draft picks in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Turner has the Steelers receiving a third-round pick for the loss of Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins and a fifth-round pick for the loss of cornerback Keenan Lewis to the New Orleans Saints. These match what I recently predicted, however, Turner also has the Steelers receiving a seventh-round pick for the loss of safety Ryan Mundy to the New York Giants, but even he admits that he’s not too sure about that.

Turner writes:

Ryan Mundy is the big wild card. He signed for $780,000, a relatively low amount, and played 667 snaps. I think that qualifies him as a significant contributor to the team, and with players at barely higher salaries and much fewer snaps counted in past years, I think Mundy qualifies for the comp pick equations.

Personally, I didn’t predict compensation for the loss of Mundy because he signed a veteran qualifying contract for the minimum and also because he only played 57.4% of the total defensive snaps last season with the Giants. In addition, the Steelers signed running back LaRod Stephens-Howling, who I have pretty much canceling out Mundy, even though he was lost for the year to a knee injury in the season opener. It could go either way.

Compensatory draft picks are usually announced at the NFL owners’ meetings, which occur this year in late March, so we have several more weeks of waiting until we know for sure what the Steelers will be awarded.

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About Dave Bryan

I am, I'm me. 40 something, retired and a life long Steelers fan.
  • Shawn Winbush

    We need all the help we can get,so i will take that pick if we are that lucky. I hope he’s wrong about the Lewis pick,I think it should be higher,like a 4th.

  • kakello34

    Didn’t we give up our 3rd this year to get Landry Jones or Shamarko? That 3rd for Wallace is important to get.

  • 20Stoney

    The ironic part of this is I think most people would rather have the lesser valued Lewis than Wallace on the team.

  • Weiss Chad

    I concur.I’d have to say probably 99.9% would rather have keenan Lewis

  • pittsburghjoe

    I dont get it. We should get at least a 4th for Lewis. I guess I dont understand the equation inputs. You can argue Lewis’ contribution were equal to, or greater than Wallace’s. They both were third round picks, both received large contracts, albeit, Wallaces’ was much larger. Both started about the same percentage of snaps. Jeeze..the more I think about it, why not a 3rd?

  • pittsburghjoe

    If Mundy qualifies, why doesnt Mendy….??

  • pittsburghjoe

    We gave up our third for Shamarko. Landry Jones was just a wasted 4th round pick.

  • Reg Sayhitodabadguy Hunt

    What about mendenhall i think better yet hoping we get a pick for him as far as mundy i don’t see why we shouldn’t get a pick for him being that he played in over 50% of the snaps and LSH was injured that early in the season anyhow my fingers crossed

  • blackandgoldBullion

    That’s what I was saying yesterday. The NFL is strange in the way it figures things, but even though Mundy played with the crappy Giants, he still played nearly 60% of snaps, like a starter. Why not get some sort of Comp pick for that.

    Mendy was not very good and will probably do nothing going forward, but last year, he was used more than any other back the Cards had, thus like a starter. So you don;t get anything high but perhaps another 7th round comp pick.

    I wish I knew how they figured things out. Not even Shorlock Holmes could figure out the mystery that is the NFL rules.

  • Callentown

    And the second part of the question is . . .

    Which of these picks will the NFL ‘take away’ to punish the Steelers for the Tomlin sideline incident?

    Thanks again to Ryan Clark for giving them even more reason, btw.

  • Superdriller316

    Yeah, last year everyone projected we get a 7th for William Gay. Turns out we got a 6th. Only the owners know.

  • CW

    Wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers also get a 6th or 7th round pick for Mendenhall to be honest.

    He didn’t play well, but he cost significantly more than Mundy and the first rule of the compensatory draft pick game is cost of signing the free agent. Nnamdi Asomugha was terrible with the Eagles after being signed away from the Raiders. So bad the Eagles actually benched him in a couple of games if memory serves and the Raiders still got a third round pick for him based on the massive contract the Eagles signed him to.

  • CW

    The contract isn’t big enough for Lewis to get the Steelers a 3rd round pick without Lewis getting to the Pro Bowl. Maybe an extra 4th round pick. But I believe you only see 3rd round picks for insane contracts, like Wallace’s contract, and free agent Pro Bowl players.

  • Iron Cadet

    The 3rd will basically be a 4th. It’s at the end of the round and can’t be traded

  • Luke Shabro

    Depending on the position though this draft is deep so getting a super late 3rd is still pretty good. Especially if they take a WR.

  • Iron Cadet

    I agree

  • Jonathon Bert Schade

    Agreed

  • WilliamSekinger

    Well the draft order has been set for a week now, and no news from the league about taking a draft pick. Hopefully we don’t hear anything else about it.

  • Michael Pearce

    I wanted to get rid of Wallace the year before. Keenan was Colbert’s biggest blunder in his whole tenure. Now we have no shut down corners and our defensive backfield is aging and collapsing on itself.

  • Nolrog

    In terms of what the team needs, plus the high value of the contract he got, I would value Lewis higher than Wallace for the Steelers.

  • Louis Goetz

    You can’t blame Colbert for losing Lewis. The kid is from New Orleans. He wanted to go back home. He didn’t keep it a secret and he didn’t field any other offers. Yes, the Steelers could have paid him what the Saints gave him, but the kid simply didn’t want to be a Pittsburgh Steeler.

  • gene mann

    If we get an extra pick it would be great as long as they don’t waste a pick on another QB. the steelers have to get some value there at least backups.

  • gene mann

    Totally agree he wanted to be closer to home and believe Colbert had no chance

  • MIchael

    Way too early to call Jones a wasted pick. More than a few ‘experts’ (Bill Poulian, Mike Mayock, et al) considered Landry among THE top QBs available in last year’s draft. Let;’s see how he develops….

  • MIchael

    Plus the Saints paid the kinda $$$ for him the Steelers simply d/n have.

  • Louis Goetz

    Actually, the contract the Saints gave him was surprisingly cap friendly. It was a 5 year $25M deal. $6M up front with $4.5M more guaranteed. His cap hit for 2013 was only $2.25M, which the Steeles could’ve afforded, and he was only supposed to count $3.35M this year, but they’ve already re-worked his contract to turn most of his salary this year & next into another signing bonus. After playing 1 year for the Saints he’s already cashed checks totaling $11.8M. Good for him. Sorry we couldn’t keep him.

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