Categorized | 2014 Draft, Article

Examining The Draft Process – Weighing Hopes Against Expectations


By Matthew Marczi

When it comes to determining draft needs, it’s important to make a distinction in future projections of current talent between expectations and hopes. It’s very dangerous to make draft decisions based solely on your hopes for your current talent pool. Expectations are not always met, but they are certainly more assured than hopes.

In this case, expectations are realistic future speculations, whether that is regarding player development, longevity, rehabilitation, or contract negotiations. Hopes, on the other hand, are simply that: hopes. Desires based on little evidence and a great amount of faith.

The inside linebacker position is a good stable of players to serve as an example when it comes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with one obvious example that sticks out immediately.

Anybody and everybody naturally hopes that Sean Spence will be able to play football again. However, it’s not a realistic expectation to take into consideration in an evaluation of the available talent at the position.

Even if Spence is able to take the field again this season—or ever, for that matter—there’s no assurance that he will be able to play at the level that was expected of him during his rookie preseason before he was injured.

In other words, the hypothetical return of Spence is not something a team should take into consideration when weighing their draft options against what talent they have on the roster at the inside linebacker position.

Then there is Vince Williams, a player for whom there is a litany of both hopes and expectations, primarily because there is still so much to learn about him, being that he is only going into his second season.

Williams is a player who participated on defense at a far greater capacity, both in terms of quality and quantity, than anticipated; he exceeded expectations as a rookie. Now what are the expectations for him as a second-year player?

What first must be determined is if he is the expected starter at the Buck linebacker position. The reason that he played was due to the injury to Larry Foote. With Foote expected to be back, the Steelers have to project who would best serve the team as the starter and go from there, assuming cap issues don’t come into effect.

One can realistically expect that a second-year player will be able to play with a greater level of comfort on a variety of levels. When it comes to specific areas of his game, it’s hard to say that improvement is anything but a hope.

For example, I wouldn’t call improvement in pass coverage an expectation for Williams, given his performance as well as his history. Likewise, I would be able to do nothing but hope that Shamarko Thomas’ height won’t limit his effectiveness on the field, outside of being careful to avoid matchup mismatches.

When it comes to Lawrence Timmons, I expect him to play better in 2014 than he did last year due to the instability that he was surrounded with, which I believe affected his game, including often playing as the sole inside linebacker. Next season, he will surely be paired with a familiar player, which wasn’t the case once Foote—the signal caller, no less—was lost for the year.

For Foote, one must hope not only that he is healed, but that he isn’t rusty after basically sitting out a year. A decline must be expected; after all, he was struggling already in the season opener last year against Tennessee’s pulling guards.

The Steeler hope that they have (at least) two quality starters at inside linebacker on their roster right now. But can they really claim that they expect it? After all, they spent much of last season taking Williams off the field, even eventually rotating him with Terence Garvin. Foote’s earlier decline will only be exacerbated now.

Just because the hopes may outweigh realistic expectations, however, doesn’t mean that you ignore the hopes. There’s still so much to learn about Williams, and if the Steelers, for example, bring in a rookie first round pick at the position, we may never know if Williams could turn into a long-term starter.

This past season, Jason Worilds nearly got lost in the shuffle to a similar fate before he emerged as one of the team’s best players in the second half of the season. Did Williams inspire enough hope last season to earn the organization’s faith that they don’t need to look for an immediate alternative?

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About Matthew Marczi

Passionate Steelers fan with a bit of writing ability. Connoisseur of loud music. Follow me on Twitter @mmarczi.
  • Kevin Gobleck

    That is why i’m hoping for CB/WR/TE in the first. We’ve seen what we have or what we might have everywhere else, and i think C. Brown, D. Paulson, and others have proven that they aren’t worth waiting for them to become starters while they can be decent on ST but we need future starters at those positions the most

  • Matt Manzo

    Don’t forget safety, too.

  • Kevin Gobleck

    Well at least we have Shamarko for now

  • LayDownTheHammer

    For God’s sake no WR/TE in the first, we’ve had this Disqus conversation before.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Lesson to learn or re-learn in the coming months: DON’T listen to draftniks. They are STUPID and see everything through the polarized glasses of “the measurables”. I call the pre-draft process the “Hype Train” because draftniks celebrate every player as the next Pro Bowler and focus on the positives too much and assume a player has no negatives. Hence, they are as far from ‘realistic’ as you can get. Look at the tape for yourself and make your own conclusions. If you want any confirmation Google all the archives of Kiper, McShay, etc.’s mock drafts and say the glowing things they say about JaMarcus, Leaf, Couch, etc. After they are drafted and bust out, everyone forgets about their glowing assessments so it’s not their problem anymore – there’s no accountability with draftniks.

  • steelster

    I would like to see the steelers take the best defensive player that falls to them with the first pick. In the second round, it would be great if they take Jarvis landry from Lsu. Watch him on you tube. This guy has the best hands in the draft, is a good route runner and blocker. He is a bigger version of Hines Ward. The only reason he isn’t a first rounder is his lack of elite speed.

  • Matt Manzo

    I love Shamarko!(is his official nickname Shark, yet?)
    But I keep hearing he’s not a FS, that he’s only a SS. I don’t know what to believe, most of the guys on here tend to be right.

  • Kevin Gobleck

    I’m not to sure on that part although i believe he did reps at FS this year so i am hoping that ends up being his position. although if we do go S in the first round i think Clinton-dix and Pryor would make a great pair with Shark.

  • Shannon Stephenson

    You make some really good points Matt. This is one reason why I am having problems trying to narrow down who we are going to take in the first. What I see is limited and what the Steelers feel could be entirely different. I would hate to see us draft a early round ILB if Williams is the answer but even though I think he has a lot of upside do the Steelers feel the same way?

  • Steeler Fanatic

    Can’t agree more, whether it is corner, safety or ‘backer. I like Landry too… Benjamin scares me… Too many drops and not aggressive enough.

  • Steve

    Most said we would take Eddie Lacy last year. We had our chance because he was still available but got a RB-Bell. This year have heard CB, WR and Safety, so we will see what happens in May. We need a playmaker in the 1st round and there are plenty to draft.

  • DoctorNoah

    Ebron in the first! Exactly what we need!

  • steelster

    ebron will be gone before the steelers pick

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Mid-1st is way too early for a TE, I don’t care what year it is or how good the TE is. Most can’t block at all either.

  • gene mann

    They need a PLAYMAKER @15 and starter. That why i don’t want Nix at 15

  • LayDownTheHammer

    It’s so easy to say we want a playmaker but we Steelers fans cannot get caught up in the pass/offense-happy NFL nowadays. D playmakers are coached more than drafted, we just need the proper drafting (which is a stretch for MT). Look at the ‘Hawks commitment to D and their brilliant drafting; we used to have both but lost our identity and self over the last several years.

  • Steve

    Tomlin coached corners and safetys back in Tampa and Vikings. Our Scouts need to do better evaluating talent.

  • alex

    amen brother,

    so much talk about a Steelers pick of DT Nix, MR. 2 down man, and if we actually knew what was going on @ the Mike, which a healthy Spencer was designed to deal with, the heart of the D might have some future answers…

    and then there is Vince…work on that speed and your hips for 2014 bro, please!

  • sean mcmartin

    Draft or free agent the secondary needs a pure cover corner..Ike’s replacement is now playing with the saints.
    I do hope they turn it around and come out strong in pre-season through the playoffs.. play with a chip on their shoulder..whatever it takes get them motivated to hit anything that moves, show old game films of Greg Lloyd and Porter, lambert etc..whatever it takes get these guys ready to battle. bring back some nastiness, get a defensive mantra ,”,No More than 3 yards” “win it for Troy” something needs to change..niners need some payback..

  • Louis Goetz

    Historically, the Steelers don’t commit to WRs. Just look at the WRs they drafted in the 1st 3 rounds since 2000: P. Burress (1), A. Randle El (2), S. Holmes (1), W. Ried (3), L. Sweed (2), M. Wallace (3), E. Sanders (3), and M. Wheaton (3).
    Burress, Randle El, Holmes, Wallace and soon-to-be Sanders never got their 2nd contracts from the Steelers because the Steelers simply don’t pay market value for wide-outs (which makes the decision to keep Sanders last year all the more puzzling).
    I hope the Steelers stay away from WR in the 1st round unless: (a) they can land one of the three big WRs; and (b) they commit long term to him. if not, their wasting the pick again by drafting a guy and developing him for another team to use. I’m kind of tired of seeing 1st day picks netting the Steelers 2 years of development, 1-2 years of good productivity and then a compensatory draft pick a year later.

  • rey perez

    Yea let’s look at the commitment the seahawks did with their defense they drafted diamonds in the rough in the late rounds, ever hear the saying its better to be lucky than good well that’s what they did the took chances on best available player and they worked and thats what needs to happen with us we need to get best available late in drafts regardless of needs whos gonna care if we addressed a need in the 7th nobody so mind as well get and x factor in the 1st aka evans or benjamin and go defense the rest of the way maybe pick up a ot or rb or te late and thats where mike tomlin needs to decides needs vs wants

  • John Todora

    He covered WRs in the slot man-to-man so I would assume that talent transfers to the FS position. He has a reputation as a big hitter and he played SS in college but the kid is a super athlete who can run so I think FS is a position he can excel at.

  • John Todora

    We need weapons. And then we need more of them. All we have is A. Brown right now. He is only player on offense that actually scares anyone. If he has a big WR or another speed guy on the other side that made people respect him, the running game and passes to the TE and slot would open up more. Look at teams like GB, Denver, NE and even SF. They have so many different options for lineups they can put on the field. We have one decent one. Heck when we go 3 TEs one is usually a Tackle! Weapons with speed. We need them.

  • John Todora

    Agree 100% with the Big WR idea. But I will say this, some of that is luck and some of it is coaching. We don’t seem to do a very good job of developing young players. When was the last star we got out of a late round? AB? That kid has made himself because he works his a$$ off. Beachum? Kid is a valedictorian so he is teaching himself. Seattle mined the late rounds for players that fit their mold and coached them up. Thats the lesson.

  • John Todora

    We keep sticking to this “lost identity” thing like its some type of crisis. I am pretty sure the club knows where it wants to go and what works. We pay $17,000,000 a year for a QB and the fans keep begging for a Bus type running game. The pass happy offense is the way to go. Seattle got to where they were because they were blowing people out all year long. We need to score more points. Lots more.

  • John Todora

    IF we draft a rookie on defense, chances are he won’t play because of injury and if he DOES play, history tells is he won’t play well in the system until year two or three when he finally gets it on his own. (LeBeau and the coaching staff don’t have the patience to teach the young guys). I would rather go Offense/offense in the first two picks and then go defense the rest of the way, along with a depth pick at TE around the 4th and RB a little later on. Fill those secondary spots with guys who fit our system from FA. They are out there.

  • cencalsteeler

    As cerebral as Foote is and how much talk about how he knows this defense, I think it’s time to move on. I think back to 2012 season and he was pretty slow in coverage and being picked on quite regularly. I can not imagine him coming back in 2014 faster and covering better than back in ’12. My skin crawls at times when talks surface of bringing back these vets. It’s like watching the kid touch the stove over and over and continuously getting burned. It’s time to move on.

  • Milliken Steeler

    That depends on the position John and we really need players on defense. If Gilbert or Mosely were there at 15, I would hope we would go that route as they could play right away if the talent is as good as advertised.

    We had Shamarko and Williams playing and Vince doesn;t have the experience to drop back and cover. Mosely does drop back and cover and could be a pretty stout tandem paired with Timmons.

    I could see Gilbert playing in certain packages right away also barring any injury set backs. This draft is deep and I would hope we would double dip and CB and grab another safety.

    We could still grab a high value pick at WR in the 3rd or the fourth round and select a TE, RB or DL in the later rounds.

    While there is no sure thing, the closest to that in the first round at WR to me is Watkins and he will be gone by the time we pick at 15.

  • Matt Manzo

    I would love for him and Troy to man the back. We would still need depth at either safety position. Do u know which safety prospects can flip safety positions easily? Like can Pryor play both?

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Tomlin is the head and most important scout.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    If pass happy offenses are so great, then maybe you can explain to me why the following teams have been stunned: 2013 Broncos, 2011/2007 Patriots, 2008 Cardinals, 2002 Raiders, 2001 Rams, 1998 Vikings, etc. I can go on and on.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Substance is stronger than flash my friend. D and OL may not be in vogue anymore but they win you championships, like it or not. How many weapons did we have when we won the SB both times? Comparable to this year I’d say. If you even watched the Super Bowl, you also knew that Denver had lots of ‘weapons’.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Big WRs are so overrated. Everyone assumes A) that big WRs can run. Not everyone is Calvin Johnson. B) their stats in college are overinflated because they get away with athleticism and size. In the NFL, DBs jump better, jam off the LOS, and are in general more physical and obtusive. C) they assume big WRs have the work ethic and coachability of smaller WRs that may be more likely to have a chip on their shoulders (see Brown, Antonio). D) they assume big WRs can run routes which is the farthest shot. In college they have no motivation to learn hwo to run routes because all their Q will do is air it out and their size will win.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    That’s where MT’s “drafting genius” stops us. Do some research and look all the 4th-7th rounders that became NFL-caliber in the Cowher era and compare it to the Tomlin era. He is awful at the late rounds and the evidence supports it.

  • cp72

    Landry is a faster Robert Woods.

  • Steve

    He may be the head coach but the organization pays scouts very well to evaluate talent and report their findings back to the team. Tomlin can’t checkout every player himself, he needs a lot of help and scouts are paid to do this.

  • John Todora

    For every team you named that failed you can name one that succeeded. What kind of team beat us on the last Super Bowl we played in? Seattle scored 40+ points in that game on Sunday. I realize some of it was on special team and defense, but if you think you are going to outscore people every week on special teams and defense you are dreaming. It was a good performance, but its not the model for the new NFL. Thats not my opinion. Thats the opinion of most everyone.

  • John Todora

    I’m not sold on it being a drafting issue. That late in the draft is a lot of luck. Antonio Brown was luck. The kid turned out to have the work ethic to make himself a star, but that wasn’t planned. Seattle whole defensive backfield came in late rounds. Every other team missed out on these guys? No. They drafted then, THEY LET THEM PLAY and they learned. We sit guys for a year or two and hope they figure it out on the bench. Look at Worilds and Heyward this year. It took 3-4 years for these guys to get it? Coaches have to coach these guys up. I agree that Cowher was better at developing the bottom half of his roster, which kept us competitive. The new regime does not.

  • sean mcmartin

    John,
    You do make a valid point, For some reason other teams can start rookies and they play well, pats, packers..It seems nothing much will get solved through the draft with the” Steelers way” and they do not like to acquire top tier free agents. and their recent draft history is not very good. So there you have it. As a Fan I can want whatever for the team. But tomlin, scouts and colbert have not shown good talent evaluation and doubtful we will ever see the likes of an enforcer like a harrison, porter, lloyd on the team until tomlin retires or gets fired. It’s back to the dark days once again as evidenced by 8-8 back to back seasons. when there was only a handfull of talented players and not much else. exception is back then they had no franchise QB ..or decent QB ..
    and yes there is Cap problems and every year they deal with it..don’t have much faith in the coaching or GM at this point.
    I am a Steelers Fan and always will be. I am not a fan of The inept coaching or scouting department.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    I would hope MT himself checks out every drafted player, regardless of round, by himself…as he has said in a press conference himself, he is responsible for every drafted player.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Well no, I cannot name one that succeeded for every one that failed. Perhaps you can entertain me and in the process see my point about the importance of defenses. I don’t think you will find much, because the only example you gave me was about the 2010 Packers, who you failed to realize were the #2 defense in the league (Steelers #1) which is hardly a slouch. According to the stats, they allowed only 8 more points than us that year. Therefore, no, I still don’t buy your argument because the evidence points to mine. I will reiterate that defense wins championships, not flashy offense. Perhaps you also missed that stat that 5/6 of the last #1 O vs #1 D were won by the #1 D team.

  • joed32

    Colbert is and was the GM, I’m not sure how much input the coaches have, particularly in the late rounds.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Thanks for the chuckle. I don’t attribute anything to luck. The whole point of Combine and pro day interviews and pre-draft workouts with teams is to assess this very issue – work ethic and coachability.That’s also another one of many drafting deficiencies of MT, who has drafted “utterly hardworking” players such as Marcus Gilbert and Jon Dwyer. Not to mention last year’s draft in which Mike Adams whined and bitched for MT to draft him despite his pot-laced past, then proceeds to have the worst OT technique on the team. I’m not even going to mention Rainey and Ta’amu. Of course, when you have a players’ coach like MT this situation will go over realllll well. And for the record, I don’t think Worilds has “gotten it” – people label him great this year but he will always be a bust to me. “Conveniently” doing well in a contract year, and still not being able to play the run or drop into coverage, is absolutely mind-boggling.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    I’ve posted this in previous threads, but in short, Colbert has always been the GM, yes, so why did our drafting go to hell (particularly the late rounds) after MT came aboard? Something changed. Either Cowher’s scouts or himself were clearly superior to the MT counterparts. Then again, what do you expect from a guy who’s been doing nothing but coaching WRs/DBs his whole coaching life prior to 1 year with the Bucs?

  • John Todora

    So Tom Brady drafted in the 6th was by design? Kurt Warner as a FA pickup was because St Luis knew something that no other team knew? You believe the story that Willie Parker was on our team because one of the Roonies spotted him and just “had to have him” (but not enough to waste a draft pick on him)? You think every team in the NFL passed on Richard Sherman because they knew he was going to be an elite corner but they didn’t really need one of those? They drafted Russell Wilson and the coach didn’t even want him!!! There is no luck involved? You think they spend as much time scouting guys will go in the later rounds as they do on guys who will go in the top 3? Gilbert was a bad pick but Adams has a first round grade but he has no feet. I am not suggesting that we draft well, because we haven’t. What I am suggesting is that we are not doing very well with what we do have. I do agree with you that we seem to just draft random guys in the late rounds. I agree that we have missed on almost every 2nd rounder in recent history, sometimes drafting players that have made me scratch my head, but the blame has to be spread out across the organization. I have been in management my whole life. Sometimes I have a bad crew and I have to figure out how to make them better. I don’t think we are doing that.

  • John Todora

    Ok, let me see if you can understand this. You can’t argue the fact that NE is probably the most consistent team in the NFL the last 10 years or so. Always competitive and always in the hunt. 5 appearances in SBs is pretty impressive too. They had a decent defense for the first few years, but over the last 8 or so, they have gotten by on bad drafts and a mediocre defense because they stock the closet with weapons. When certain guys leave, they replace them with other guys. They go 4 deep at WR and 3 deep at RB with guys who can make big plays. They used to have two of the best TEs in football and if not for Gronks injuries and Hernandez being a gangsta they would still have those guys and an even more impressive offense. I WOULD LOVE FOR US TO HAVE THAT CONSISTENCY! You can count how many times we have blown out teams in the last 3 years on one hand! The reality is; there is no denying that the team with the most points win. And btw GB had the #2 defense that year because they played with the lead all year long, mostly large leads. The same thing with the Seahawks this year in the Super Bowl. When you are up by 20-30 points its easy to pour it on. I will say it again; we are paying a QB $17million+ a year, why are we trying to be a run first, smash mouth defense team? We don’t have the personnel for that and we aren’t even close.

  • John Todora

    Here you go. A list of the last few Super Bowl winners and the points they scored to win
    Pittsburgh Steelers 27
    New Orleans Saints 31
    Green Bay Packers 31
    New York Giants 21
    Baltimore Ravens 34
    Seattle Seahawks 43

    Of these teams, only the Seahawks were a “run first” team. The rest made their bones by throwing the ball. And BTW each of these teams had an opponent that was a pass first team, except San Fran last year.
    The average combined score of these games? FIFTY POINTS! Yea, lots a defense going on there.
    Perhaps you missed all those stats. Now stop talking to me like I am some type of moron and do your homework before you talk on here. You sound like a jackass.

  • Steve

    There is no way Tomlin can check out every single player, that is almost like saying I hope he coaches every player on his team. He has to have scouts do this for him and report what they see, goods and bads. There are thousands of players available to be drafted, yes only some are top notch but there are steals to be made and thats what they need to let him and the FO know.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Well that’s why each team has its own Big Board for each round, its well scouted targets that should be available at that round. Tomlin should be responsible for at least all those players, one of which will be available.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Again I will reiterate: No such thing as luck. Late rounders are picked based on 3 things: 1) potential, 2) fit in the scheme, and 3) measurables alone with the absence of tape or other measurables.

    Those examples you gave all belong to one of those three. Honestly, the most common reason a player slips is due to non-ideal measurables (e.g. Wilson and his height), lack of exposure (e.g. Brady, Matt Cassel, etc.), and/or lack of game-readiness/polish (e.g. Sherman). You put any of these types of players in the wrong system with lack of coaching, accountability, coaching support, etc. (e.g. Jax or Oak) and you get a bust. If the scheme fits and the player works hard and can mentally learn well, you get someone who panned out.

    Scouting is all about picking one player on your Big Board in Round X that can be molded based on evidence you see/get. There is no luck effect on whether a prospect pans out as long as you control for scheme, assess for work ethic, etc.

  • Steve

    Hammer – Should be available, we don’t know how other teams think. Now your starting to understand. The Steelers pay people also to coach or teach. Tomlin relys on these teachers to show his players the ins and outs of each position. Some of these get across the message better than others. Scouts go to games in person to check out players while Tomlin is back in Pitt doing his job. They report to Tomlin and he may look at tape of the player in games. Tomlin cannot be everywhere, but I am sure he does go and check out some personally.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Reply to both your posts:

    Consistency doesn’t win you the Super Bowl my friend. Your own example can tell you that much. Peyton Manning’s teams have also been “consistent”. And yet I’d always take Ben with his tough D.

    Are you kidding? You tell me about “doing my homework” in your other post – why don’t you practice what you preach? Look up the 2010 GB season. 11/16 games (including 3/4 playoff games) were decided by 8 points or less. Are you REALLY doing your HW? Are you denying that this year’s ‘Hawks D was not dominant? Did you WATCH any of the games?

    RE: your list – if you noticed my argument, I took the defense as a whole throughout the entire year into my argument. Your list entails performances in ONE GAME. And just listing the points scored is really no different than listing the points allowed by their D’s. Look up the last 15 years worth of SBs and instead of the 1-game outputs, look at the correlation between quality/rank of the D and winning/losing. You state VERBATIM: “And BTW each of these teams [that won the SB] had an opponent that was a pass first team, except San Fran last year.” => AND WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT PASS FIRST TEAMS? THEY LOSE THE SB! BY YOUR OWN ARGUMENT! Do you SERIOUSLY understand what you’re telling me? It’s just supporting MY ARGUMENT.

    Please, for God’s sake, spare me of any further non-substantiated drivel.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    Well by “should be available” I mean “at least one will be available” because these lists are so big. I’m not as much concerned about checking out players personally, sitting and watching tape is enough. That’s all I want MT to do. Watch tape of the drafted players to assess them before they are drafted.

  • Steve

    Usually when a team has a board, it is the top players that they would like to have out of the possible players available. When one gets taken they cross them off the board.

  • joed32

    You don’t like Mike, I get it, but that’s part of the reason that I don’t think he’s doing the drafting. His experience is with DBs. I’m sure Colbert discusses players with him and with every position coach about who they would like to have. There were some real clunkers drafted during Cowher’s tenure but I’m not blaming him and him alone for those.

  • Steve

    With you on Foote. 2013 he was a weak link and was getting beat before being lost for the year.

  • LayDownTheHammer

    I have nothing against him as a person and even as a coach (aside from the players’ coach issue and questionable time management), but his drafting is his major weakness to the point that I sometimes think that as long as he’s in command, we won’t win another SB. Though I wrote that, I’m not going to officially say it because I need to mull over it more.

    As far as DBs, you’d think his drafting would be better than Cowher’s but I’m not even sure about that. DB drafting was Cowher’s only real Achilles in drafting, but he was responsible for bringing in Troy, Clark, Chris Hope, and Ike. Take a look at all the DBs drafted under Tomlin: Gay Mundy Burnett Lewis Butler Brown Allen Frederick Hawthorne. Not exactly inspiring; we only had 1 good year out of the best-quality one (Lewis) and jury’s still out on Cortez’s cover skills.

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