I now have the TOX stats through Week 4 of the 2014 NFL season compiled and this week the teams with a plus two or better TOX stat went a perfect 12-0 (100%).
Year to date, teams with a plus two or better TOX stat are now 39-4 (90.7%). Keep in mind that the expected number should be 80% or better.
As for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4, they were minus three in their Sunday loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers final explosive play on their game-winning drive was really what won it.
The Steelers have given up 23 explosive plays so far this season and only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more (27). The Steelers play the Jaguars in Week 5.
I’d like to remind you that we are tracking penalty plays this season that result in a gain of 20 or more yards as well. If you need a refresher on the TOX stat, it’s a differential of combined explosive plays and turnovers in a single game. Teams with a plus two TOX stat in any given game are expected to win 80% of the time.
If this stat is not your cup of tea, feel free to just skip over it every week. If you find any mistakes, please let me know in the comments.
| WEEK 4 | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| SF | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| NYG | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| BAL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| SD | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| IND | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| KC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| MIA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| MIN | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| TB | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| DET | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| GNB | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| HOU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | W |
| BUF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| CHI | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | L |
| NYJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | L |
| ATL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -3 | L |
| OAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -3 | L |
| PIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | L |
| NE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -4 | L |
| NO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -4 | L |
| TEN | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -4 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -6 | L |
| JAX | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -6 | L |
| WAS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -7 | L |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | -8 | L |
| YTD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| BAL | 15 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 3-1 |
| SD | 17 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3-1 |
| BUF | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 2-2 |
| SF | 15 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2-2 |
| ARI | 13 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3-0 |
| CIN | 11 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3-0 |
| HOU | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3-1 |
| SEA | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2-1 |
| DAL | 8 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3-1 |
| IND | 17 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2-2 |
| MIN | 13 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2-2 |
| KC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 2-2 |
| DET | 15 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 3-1 |
| ATL | 20 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 | 2-2 |
| GNB | 10 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2-2 |
| PHI | 16 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 3-1 |
| TEN | 9 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1-3 |
| CLE | 10 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 1-2 |
| CAR | 14 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 2-2 |
| MIA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 2-2 |
| NE | 8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 2-2 |
| NYG | 12 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2-2 |
| NYJ | 12 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -6 | -3 | 1-3 |
| TB | 11 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | -4 | 1-3 |
| DEN | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 2-1 |
| CHI | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 1 | -8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2-2 |
| PIT | 14 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -6 | 2-2 |
| WAS | 15 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -5 | -6 | 1-3 |
| NO | 9 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -6 | -8 | 1-3 |
| OAK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 0 | -6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | -10 | 0-4 |
| STL | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | -10 | 1-2 |
| JAX | 12 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 0 | -14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -5 | -19 | 0-4 |
