I now have the TOX stats through Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season compiled and this week we had a well overdue correction as the teams with a plus two or better TOX stat went 7-3 (70%).
Year to date, teams with a plus two or better TOX stat are now 46-7 (86.8%). Keep in mind that the expected number should be 80% or better.
As for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5, they were a plus four in their Sunday win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Year to date the Steelers are slowly creeping back to the positive side as they are now minus two. The Cleveland Browns, who the Steelers will play this Sunday, are also a minus two. In addition to that, both teams have given up 25 explosive plays when you include penalties. The Browns, however, have only turned the football over once so far this season as opposed to the Steelers, who have turned it over six times in their first five games.
I’d like to remind you that we are tracking penalty plays this season that result in a gain of 20 or more yards as well. If you need a refresher on the TOX stat, it’s a differential of combined explosive plays and turnovers in a single game. Teams with a plus two TOX stat in any given game are expected to win 80% of the time.
If this stat is not your cup of tea, feel free to just skip over it every week. If you find any mistakes, please let me know in the comments.
| WEEK 5 | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| GNB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| NE | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | W |
| DEN | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | W |
| SD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| PIT | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| STL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| BUF | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| SF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| ATL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| TB | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | L |
| SEA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| BAL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| HOU | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| TEN | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | L |
| CAR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | W |
| CHI | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| CLE | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | W |
| DAL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | W |
| IND | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -1 | W |
| WAS | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | L |
| NO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2 | W |
| NYG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3 | W |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3 | L |
| KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3 | L |
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | W |
| JAX | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -4 | L |
| ARI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | L |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -5 | L |
| CIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -6 | L |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -7 | L |
| YTD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| SD | 21 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 4-1 |
| BUF | 18 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 3-2 |
| BAL | 18 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 3-2 |
| SF | 18 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 3-2 |
| GNB | 13 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3-2 |
| HOU | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3-2 |
| SEA | 11 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3-1 |
| ATL | 23 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 5 | 2-3 |
| DAL | 12 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 4-1 |
| IND | 22 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3-2 |
| NE | 12 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3-2 |
| ARI | 15 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3-1 |
| CIN | 14 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3-1 |
| KC | 13 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 2-3 |
| DET | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 3-2 |
| DEN | 17 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3-1 |
| TEN | 12 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 |
| CAR | 18 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 3-2 |
| PIT | 18 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | -2 | 3-2 |
| MIN | 13 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | -2 | 2-3 |
| CLE | 15 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 2 | -5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2-2 |
| MIA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 2-2 |
| TB | 16 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | -2 | 1-4 |
| PHI | 17 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -4 | -4 | 4-1 |
| NYG | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 0 | -5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | -5 | 3-2 |
| CHI | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 1 | -7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | -6 | 2-3 |
| STL | 14 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | -3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -3 | -6 | 1-3 |
| WAS | 20 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -5 | -7 | 1-4 |
| NYJ | 12 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -7 | -8 | 1-4 |
| OAK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 0 | -6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | -10 | 0-4 |
| NO | 13 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -8 | -10 | 2-3 |
| JAX | 13 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 4 | 0 | -17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | -23 | 0-5 |
