2016 NFL Draft Player Profiles: Stanford QB Kevin Hogan

As you should know by now, our attention has now shifted to the 2016 NFL Draft as it relates to the prospects. From now until the draft takes place, we hope to profile as many draft prospects as we possibly can for you. Most of these player profiles will be centered around prospects the Pittsburgh Steelers are likely to have interest in.

Our first quarterback profile of draft season on this site. Stanford’s Kevin Hogan.

#8 Kevin Hogan/QB Stanford: 6’3/2 217

The Good

– NFL size and build with huge hands (10 1/8)
– Gunslinger who is already used to throwing into tight windows, risk taker to a fault, but isn’t afraid to make difficult throws
– Underrated athlete who uses mobility to extend the play
– Shows arm and accuracy on deep ball, may not always be consistent, but is certainly capable of doing so
– Has an internal clock and gets the ball out quick, works back to gunslinger mentality, but also has good feel for where his checkdown is at
– Does show ability to put touch on appropriate throws, not everything is fastballs
– Capable of keeping his eye level up while on the move
– Had control over his offense, work under center and in the gun, and ran RPOs where he had control over the playcall
– Coaches very open and effusive in his praise and knowledge of the offense

The Bad

– Gunslinger, Favre-like mentality, and will have to be reeled in a bit at the next level to be risk-adverse and take calculated chances
– Some serious mechanical issues, terrible windup on his release, and can get overextended/overstride on his release
– Accuracy is prone to being inconsistent, misses too many gimmie throws
– More prone to forcing throws when under duress, needs to handle pressure better in decision-making and sliding away from pressure

Bio

– 46 career starts, three years as full-time starter plus five starts in 2012, redshirt freshman year
– 2015: 27 TDs, 67.8% completion rate, 8 INTs
– Two-time team captain (2014, 2015)
– Career: 75 TD, 29 INT, 65.9% completion
– Grandfather, two uncles, and cousin all played college football

Tape Breakdown

By and large, this isn’t a great quarterback class and Hogan is not one of the first several players mentioned when looking at the top prospects of the group. That may be off-putting but he’s a guy who is a little under the radar and has the tools to outperform his projection.

While it is dangerous to fall in love with just someone’s arm, Hogan can fire into tight windows with the best of them. Beyond that, there’s a mentality I admire. He’s a risk-taker, and that comes with its natural consequences, but he has no qualms about making a tough throw in a small window. That’s important because that’s what you’re doing the majority of the time in the NFL. Taking a college quarterback who rarely does that and ask him to do it all the time is a risk in itself.

3rd and 4 against USC. Under pressure, Hogan rifles the ball between three defenders, down and away from anyone else, to move the sticks.

There is debate about his deep ball power and accuracy but I think it’s pretty strong. Watched him throw on the money three times against Notre Dame. Here’s two examples.

His size and mobility allow him to create when the play’s structure breaks down. He’s able to break away from the blitzing Trojan, keep his eye level up as he escapes the pocket, and find the open receiver for a big gain.

Here’s another example of Hogan’s bravery but this borderlines on recklessness. Staring his target down between four defenders, totally missing an open #2 down the seam or checkdown options, both for sure first downs. Instead, the pass falls incomplete.

His release in general is just terrible. The windup takes forever, the ball drops down and away from his body. I mean, just look at this stillshot.

Hogan1

Is any coach going to want to try to rebuild that? Or you leave him be and deal with the 15 fumbles per season you’re going to get from pass rushers getting their paws on that thing.

His base can get too wide when he tries to zip the ball downfield, hurting his base and accuracy. Look at his platform on this throw down the seam.

Hogan2

And the pass winds up sailing way over the receiver’s head. Good way to throw incompletions and get your receiver murdered.

Initially, I felt pretty good about Hogan, but the more I watch, think, and type, the less confidence I have. There’s still something there, his attitude is a great place to start, but man, mechanically, he’s all over the place. It will take a lot of convincing and work from a quarterback’s coach to get on-board and you can either make small differences and still deal with problems or try to rebuild him and take that chance that he’ll never be able to break his habits.

If you know me, you know my philosophy is to either take a quarterback very high or not take one at all. That grooming a quarterback is overrated and more fruitless than any other position in the game. But not everyone shares that philosophy and Hogan is likely to get drafted. I just don’t know if he can overcome the major deficiencies in his makeup.

Projection: 7th Round

Games Watched: at Northwestern, at USC, vs Notre Dame, Senior Bowl

Previous Player Profiles
Hunter HenryEli AppleLaquon TreadwellDadi NicolasKendall Fuller
Deion JonesJihad WardKevin PetersonVonn BellMichael Caputo
Andrew BillingsMackensie AlexanderTyler ErvinAustin BlytheChris Jones
Sheldon RankinsNoah SpenceJordan JenkinsYannick NgakoueDarian Thompson
Bryce WilliamsCre’von LeblancHenry Krieger-CobleLeonard FloydJosh Garnett

About the Author

Alex Kozora

Full-time blogger from mom’s basement. Marrying tape and statistics. Chidi Iwuoma is my favorite Steeler of all-time.

  • NinjaMountie

    I’d take Hogan in the 7th round in a heart beat. I really like this guy. I’ve watched him almost every game for the past two years. Maybe it stems from me being a Stanford football fan but he’s better than the credit he’s been given. Shoot, I think he’s better already than any QB Cleveland has started the past decade. I think his floor is a solid backup in the league. His throwing motion is technically bad but there have been other weird throwers that have been successful in the league.

  • Spencer Krick

    A poor man’s Tim Tebow?

    I wouldn’t hate a QB in the 7th, considering we’re pretty 7th round rich.

  • PittsburghSports

    That is a pretty funny wind-up. I’m more interested in Cody Kessler as a 7th rd/UDFA QB. Just because the Steelers supposedly talked to him though lol.

  • PittsburghSports

    I’ve heard that comparison.

  • falconsaftey43

    If we’re going later round QB, I’ll take Vernon Adams Jr. Big arm, great mobility, goes through progressions pretty well, ok accuracy, moves in the pocket well, looks to make a big play through the air when things breakdown.

  • NinjaMountie

    Nah…watched them both play a lot and they aren’t similar other than a weird delivery. That being said, Tebow was a great college QB. Hogan has what it takes to stick around the nfl.

  • Nick Huffman

    i think that kid is shorter then shark lmao! no chance brother

  • Spencer Krick

    I do like his gutsyness, but I worry that with that delivery and that mindset he’ll be a turnover machine.

  • falconsaftey43

    I don’t care about height at all. Also we are talking about taking a QB late in the draft to be a backup. I think Adams will probably measure in at 5’11”. Plenty of examples of short QBs that have had success Brees (6’0″), Wilson (5’11”), Taylor (6’1″) are all currenlty starters. Want more? Mike Vick 6’0″, Gradkowski 6’1″, Chase Daniel, 6’0″, Colt McCoy 6’1″, Kellen Moore 6’0″ all guys who are “too short” but have carved out some sort of role in the NFL, some with a great deal of success.

  • Nick Huffman

    That’s clearly not how you build a team “I don’t care about height at all” every person their going to draft they think has the ability and talent to one day be a starter, theres 3 guys like you said that have worked out, brees-wilson & taylor, and then look at all them other scrubs for back ups, give me a 6-3 plus QB 10 out of 10 times and under that 0-10 times.

  • ATL96STEELER

    I wouldn’t either, but with no 5th or 6th, it’s not that rich really.

  • falconsaftey43

    They 100% do not think every guy they draft can be a starter. They draft guys who they think can help the team, backup QB, special teams guys, swing OL that can backup guys etc. If the Steelers could draft a QB in hte 7th round that is a Gradkowski level backup, that’d be a success. Steady guy who can win you a couple of games by managing the game and making a couple plays.

    2nd, those are only 3 guys currently in the NFL that start, that’s 9% of starters. So right out of the gate you are going to ignore potentially 9% of the possible starter quality QBs because they are short? Also I could list hundreds of QBs 6’3″ and taller who were complete failures. I guess the Seahawks should have passed on Wilson because he was short, they’d have rather taken a tall scrub than have a superbowl with that shorty.

  • LucasY59

    I have a weird feeling about this Draft, I am usually really interested in prospects for all the rds, but this yr I dont really care about any after the 4th.

    The team being out of the draft for the majority of the last day, makes it hard to be excited about the late rd guys (most arent that exciting anyway) but I usually really like finding those diamond in the rough kind of guys (especially in the 6th were the team seems to have the most luck)

    The two guys I have loosely targeted as the 7th rd picks (because it is impossible to guess who will be available in the 7th rd, even on the start of the 3rd day its still mostly a guess) are DJ Foster RB Arizona St (is a great pass catching RB, played WR his Sr yr of college) and Tyrone Holmes OLB/DE Montana (FCS DPOY could be a good sub package rusher that could develop into a 3-4 OLB also)

    I would be fine with Hogan as a 3rd QB (or another 7th rd QB, wouldnt use an earlier pick) but would really like the 3rd QB to be on the PS if that is the case. I think the team will go the Charlie Batch route with Gradkowski (but I think he could be a phone call away if needed also, so having a younger guy is cheaper and either way, I really hope neither will be anywhere close to taking a snap in a regular season game)

    The other options I would be looking for in the 7th would be a TE that Dropped (but still wouldnt be that exciting of a prospect) possibly a OL (to help with Depth) and like I already mentioned would be looking for a RB or OLB

  • falconsaftey43

    I know what you mean, no 5th and 6th this year has taken some of the fun out of looking at later round guys.

  • Alex Kozora

    You’ve been playing up Foster forever, lol.

  • Edward Hunt

    I’d like to see if he changes his motion at the combine or for his pro days. If he doesn’t fix it, it might just be too risky to use a draft pick on him.

  • LucasY59

    I will continue to do so! (haha) any time the 7th rd pick is in the discusion (will also bang the drum for Holmes as well)

    He just seems like a fit, and Im pretty sure he will be available (which isnt easy to say in that rd, him switching to WR really screwed up his draft stock) but I think as a 3rd RB his pass catching could really set him apart from the other late rd RB talent (he has good size, a little bit light (195ish, could gain some if needed since he has a bigger frame, but might be a bit lanky) but he is much bigger (6’1″) than most 3rd down pass catching RBs, and I think that will help him be a decent threat in the running game also)

    I really liked David Johnson in last yrs draft and I think he and Foster have some good similarities.

  • Angelo Caiazzo

    Best QB in this class.

  • Alex Kozora

    Woah!

  • Jefferson_St_Joe

    I live in the Bay Area and I’ve seen Hogan play a lot. Most of that time, I didn’t envision him playing pro. However, you’re correct that many knowledgeable people who know him like him. That and his record will be enough to get him drafted.

  • TrappenWeisseGuy ;

    I’ve been souring on him lately. He seemed more consistent and well better a year or two ago. Maybe it’s the funky delivery. Don’t forget he’s used to playing in front of an NFL level line.