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Looking Back At Gil Brandt’s 2016 Top 100 Draft Prospect Rankings

NFL Media senior analyst Gil Brandt has been associated with the league since 1960 and while he’s now 84 years of age, he still has a pretty good pulse on draft prospects.

On Wednesday, Brandt released his top 150 players for the 2017 NFL Draft and it got me wondering about how he did last year with his rankings.

Personally, I think a draft analyst should only be judged closely by his or her top 100 and for obvious reasons. After all, that’s roughly three full rounds of players. With that said, below is a table that includes Brandt’s final top 100 players from 2016 along with where each player wound up being selected overall. I also included how far Brandt was off in the last column. A negative number means he was too high on a player while a negative number indicates he was too low on a player.

So, what’s a good margin of error? For the sake of this exercise and until one of you can present another number and reason supporting it, I used a margin of error of 8 to either side in the top 30.

When you look at Brandt’s top 30 ranked players from 2016 you’ll notice that 8 are construed as being big misses as it relates to being off by more than 8 picks to either side. In short, Brandt hit on 73.33% of his top 30 as it relates to being within 8 picks of where the player was ultimately selected.

Of the 31 players that wound up being drafted in the first round last year, Brandt had all but 6 of them ranked in his top 31. In fact, his biggest first round miss wound up being cornerback Artie Burns, who the Pittsburgh Steelers selected 25th overall. Brandt had Burns ranked 99th overall, which one of his biggest misses in his top 100 ranked players.

Now, what’s a good margin of error for players ranked 31-60? How about 16 to either side, or essentially a half a round leeway? Using that criteria, Brant missed on 11 of his next 30 ranked players for a success rate of 63.3%.

As for players ranked 61-100, I used a margin of error of 32 and Brandt missed on 18 of 40 players for a success rate of 55%.

In summation, of Brandt’s top 100 players in 2016, only 21 of them wound up being selected outside the top 100 selections for a 79% success rate.

I’m certainly open to suggestions as to how to best grade top 100 picks moving forward and I hope to get some feedback in the comments below.

GB RANK PLAYER ACTUAL Pick # TM MISS
1 Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss 13 MIA -12
2 Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State 5 JAX -3
3 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State 4 DAL -1
4 Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State 3 SDG 1
5 Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA 36 JAX -31
6 DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon 7 SFO -1
7 Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State 2 PHI 5
8 Jared Goff, QB, California 1 LAR 7
9 Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame 6 BAL 3
10 Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State 8 TEN 2
11 Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville 12 NOR -1
12 Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia 9 CHI 3
13 A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama 46 DET -33
14 Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida 11 TAM 3
15 Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State 20 NYJ -5
16 Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson 33 TEN -17
17 Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor 15 CLE 2
18 Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama 41 BUF -23
19 Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State 16 DET 3
20 Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis 26 DEN -6
21 Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama 49 SEA -28
22 Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech 30 CAR -8
23 Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss 29 ARI -6
24 Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson 19 BUF 5
25 Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama 18 IND 7
26 Keanu Neal, S, Florida 17 ATL 9
27 Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame 21 HOU 6
28 Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss 23 MIN 5
29 Josh Doctson, WR, TCU 22 WAS 7
30 Kamalei Correa, DE, Boise State 42 BAL -12
31 William Jackson III, CB, Houston 24 CIN 7
32 Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama 45 TEN -13
33 Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas 35 SDG -2
34 Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana 48 GNB -14
35 Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia 14 OAK 21
36 Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State 32 CLE 4
37 Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State 10 NYG 27
38 Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson 54 MIN -16
39 Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma 40 NYG -1
40 Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois 44 OAK -4
41 Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State 37 KAN 4
42 Austin Johnson, DT, Penn State 43 TEN -1
43 Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State 56 CHI -13
44 Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA 27 GNB 17
45 T.J. Green, S, Clemson 57 IND -12
46 Germain Ifedi, OG, Texas A&M 31 SEA 15
47 Jonathan Bullard, DT, Florida 72 CHI -25
48 Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State 61 NOR -13
49 Su’a Cravens, OLB, USC 53 WAS -4
50 Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh 55 CIN -5
51 Darian Thompson, S, Boise State 71 NYG -20
52 Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor 122 CIN -70
53 Devontae Booker, RB, Utah 136 DEN -83
54 Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska 67 DAL -13
55 Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech 84 WAS -29
56 Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State 100 OAK -44
57 Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State 47 NOR 10
58 Sean Davis, CB, Maryland 58 PIT 0
59 Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia 83 NYJ -24
60 Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford 81 ATL -21
61 Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford 28 SFO 33
62 Evan Boehm, C, Missouri 128 ARI -66
63 C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame 90 SEA -27
64 Jacoby Brissett, QB, North Carolina State 91 NWE -27
65 Deion Jones, OLB, LSU 52 ATL 13
66 Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky 39 TAM 27
67 Zack Sanchez, CB, Oklahoma 141 CAR -74
68 Le’Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech 82 IND -14
69 Nick Vannett, TE, Ohio State 94 SEA -25
70 Roberto Aguayo, K, Florida State 59 TAM 11
71 Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana 150 CHI -79
72 Max Tuerk, C, USC 66 SDG 6
73 Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State 75 OAK -2
74 Christian Westerman, OG, Arizona State 161 CIN -87
75 Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State 85 HOU -10
76 Hassan Ridgeway, DT, Texas 116 IND -40
77 Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah State 88 GNB -11
78 Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn 76 CLE 2
79 Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Maryland 69 JAX 10
80 Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech 134 BAL -54
81 Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State 135 DAL -54
82 Miles Killebrew, S, Southern Utah 111 DET -29
83 DeAndre Houston-Carson, S, William & Mary 185 CHI -102
84 Isaac Seumalo, OG, Oregon State 79 PHI 5
85 Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan 121 MIN -36
86 Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State 51 NYJ 35
87 Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor 38 MIA 49
88 Will Redmond, CB, Mississippi State 68 SFO 20
89 Joshua Perry, ILB, Ohio State 102 SDG -13
90 Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB, West Virginia 113 CHI -23
91 Nick Martin, OG, Notre Dame 50 HOU 41
92 Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama 60 NWE 32
93 Jerald Hawkins, OT, LSU 123 PIT -30
94 Vadal Alexander, OG, LSU 234 OAK -140
95 Adam Gotsis, DT, Georgia Tech 63 DEN 32
96 Blake Martinez, ILB, Stanford 131 GNB -35
97 Joe Dahl, OG, Washington State 151 DET -54
98 Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame 103 JAX -5
99 Artie Burns, CB, Miami (Fla.) 25 PIT 74
100 Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCU 192 BUF -92
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