I now have the TOX stats through Week 8 of the 2014 NFL season compiled and this week we had the plus two or better teams go a combined TOX stat went 8-1 (88.9%).
Year to date, teams with a plus two or better TOX stat are now 73-11 (86.9%). Keep in mind that the expected number should be 80% or better.
As for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8, they were the lone team to buck the plus two or better TOX stat. They were minus three against the Indianapolis Colts Sunday yet still won the game.
I’d like to remind you that we are tracking penalty plays this season that result in a gain of 20 or more yards as well. If you need a refresher on the TOX stat, it’s a differential of combined explosive plays and turnovers in a single game. Teams with a plus two TOX stat in any given game are expected to win 80% of the time.
In case you missed it, former NFL head coach turned analyst Brian Billick recently weighed in with his thoughts on the TOX stat. I asked Billick to give his thoughts on penalties being counted and below is his response.
As coach, out of my control. Can’t scheme for it. RT “@Steelersdepot: Opinion on penalties as exp plays that result in 20+ yards gained?”
— Brian Billick (@CoachBillick) October 29, 2014
If this stat is not your cup of tea, feel free to just skip over it every week. If you find any mistakes, please let me know in the comments.
| WEEK 8 | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| BUF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| CLE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| DEN | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| HOU | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| NO | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| IND | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| CIN | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| KC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| DET | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| JAX | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 1 | L |
| NE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| SEA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| WAS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| ARI | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| PHI | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | L |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| ATL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | L |
| CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | L |
| CHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | L |
| DAL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | L |
| MIA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | W |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | L |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | L |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | L |
| PIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | W |
| GNB | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -4 | L |
| OAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -4 | L |
| SD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -4 | L |
| TEN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -4 | L |
| NYJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -6 | -8 | L |
| YTD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| SD | 35 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 5-3 |
| BUF | 30 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 5-3 |
| NE | 24 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 6-2 |
| DEN | 29 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 6-1 |
| IND | 40 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 11 | 5-3 |
| DAL | 26 | 10 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | -2 | 10 | 6-2 |
| HOU | 25 | 8 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 4-4 |
| SF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4-3 |
| SEA | 20 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 4-3 |
| ARI | 25 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 6-1 |
| BAL | 26 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 5-3 |
| GNB | 25 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5-3 |
| DET | 26 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6-2 |
| KC | 17 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 4-3 |
| ATL | 33 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -1 | 2 | 2-6 |
| CLE | 26 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 4 | -6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4-3 |
| MIA | 16 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4-3 |
| MIN | 16 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -1 | -1 | 3-5 |
| CIN | 22 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4-2-1 |
| PHI | 27 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -7 | -2 | 5-2 |
| TB | 23 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -4 | -2 | 1-6 |
| TEN | 20 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 2-6 |
| PIT | 29 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 7 | 4 | -6 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | -5 | 5-3 |
| WAS | 33 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -8 | -5 | 3-5 |
| CAR | 26 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 8 | 7 | -11 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 6 | -5 | 3-4-1 |
| NO | 22 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | -6 | -6 | 3-4 |
| CHI | 22 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 4 | -3 | -8 | 3-5 |
| NYG | 17 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 0 | -11 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | -11 | 3-4 |
| STL | 19 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 4 | -10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | -13 | 2-5 |
| OAK | 13 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 4 | 1 | -14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -7 | -21 | 0-7 |
| JAX | 24 | 5 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 0 | -13 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -10 | -23 | 1-7 |
| NYJ | 16 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | -15 | -25 | 1-7 |
