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Steelers Playoff Scenarios – Wild Card


Here is the long and short of what the Steelers need in the Wild Card Playoff Scenarios following the week 15 win versus the Packers. First, the Steelers must win out versus Baltimore and Miami. Next, the Jets and Jaguars must lose or tie at least one of their remaining games. Lastly, the Broncos must lose one more game OR Baltimore must lose week 17 to Oakland. Lastly the Texans must lose once or the Titans must win out.

Lets recap:

FOR THE STEELERS TO GET THE 5TH SEED

1) Steelers must win out versus Ravens & Dolphins

2) Titans must win out OR Texans must lose or tie one

3) Jaguars, Jets and Broncos must lose or tie one game and Ravens loses to Steelers AND loses or ties the Raiders

AFC Seeding Results:

5th seed: Steelers 9-7

6th seed: Broncos 9-7

FOR THE STEELERS TO GET THE 6TH SEED:

1) Steelers must win out versus Ravens & Dolphins

2) Titans must win out OR Texans must lose or tie one

3) Jaguars, Jets and Broncos must lose or tie one game

AFC Seeding Results:

5th seed: Ravens 9-7

6th seed: Steelers 9-7

OR

1) Steelers must win out versus Ravens & Dolphins

2) Titans must win out OR Texans must lose or tie one

3) Jets and Broncos must lose or tie one game and Ravens loses to Steelers AND loses or ties the Raiders.

AFC Seeding Results:

5th seed: Jets 9-7

6th seed: Steelers 9-7

OR

1) Steelers must win out versus Ravens & Dolphins

2) Titans must win out OR Texans must lose or tie one

3) Jets and Jaguars must lose or tie one game and Ravens loses to Steelers AND loses or ties the Raiders

AFC Seeding Results:

5th seed: Broncos 9-7

6th seed: Steelers 9-7

Steelers (7-7)
Ravens
@Dolphins
NY Jets (7-7)
@Colts
Bengals
Broncos (8-6)
@Eagles
Chiefs
Ravens (8-6)
@Steelers
@Raiders
Jaguars (7-7)
@Patriots
@Browns
Texans (7-7)
@Dolphins
Patriots
Titans (7-7)
Chargers
@Seahawks

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About Dave Bryan

I am, I'm me. 40 something, retired and a life long Steelers fan.
  • ryan

    What about jax?

  • admin

    oops fixed to add Jaguars, they must lose once as well.

  • Errol

    you forgot about Jax. If they win out, they have a tie breaker over Pgh.

  • Jimp

    what about houston — wouldn’t they have teh tie breaker over us with the games against common teams.

  • admin

    Nope we are ranked above them at the moment.

  • Mike

    If Pittsburgh wins out, all the above must happen, plus the Titans must win out or Houston must lose one game. In a three way tie with Houston, Tennessee and Pittsburgh the Steelers will be the higher seed (Titans own tiebreaker against Texans, Steelers own tiebreaker against Titans). Steelers lose a tie breaker with the Texans. They must finish tied with Tennessee or one game below us.

    Recap:

    Steelers win out.
    Jags, Jets, Broncos lose once.
    Titans win out or Texans lose once.

    This would give the Steelers the 6th seed.

    A Baltimore loss to the Raiders too would give the Steelers the 5th seed.

  • dan

    If Denver loses to Philly, but beats KC, they would have seven conference wins–wouldn’t that trump the Steelers, at 6-6 in the conference?

  • jeff

    Ugh. Jimp is correct. Ive been saying this all day. Here’s what we really need:
    1) Win out
    2) Jets lose 1 game
    3) Jags lose 1 game
    4) Baltimore loses to Oakland
    OR
    5) Denver loses 1 game, AND Houston loses 1 game, or Tennessee Wins out.
    I checked yahoo’s playoff generator. Go ahead and make Denver 9-7,Pittsburgh 9-7, Baltimore 9-7, Tennessee 8-8, and Houston 9-7 and then Denver is in at 6th and Baltimore is in at the 5th…But, change a seemingly irrelevant Tennessee game against Seattle to a win and magically this changes the Steelers to the 6th seed.

  • Tim

    I think you are wrong. Unfortunately when 3 or more teams finish with the same record you eliminate the lowest of the teams in the same division in an attempt to get it to two. And that is regardless if the lower of the two divisional teams has a better head to head against the outside team or not.
    I guess its their attempt to keep the same division from sending more than 2 teams.
    We would lose out if any other team finishes 9-7 unless Baltimore finishes 8-8.

  • Howard

    From what I see, Houston would beat Pitt in 9-7 tie breaker due to common games (3-2 to 2-3). So Pitt needs 1 Hou loss also.

  • gio

    assuming the jets,jags and broncos lose their next games and both ravens & broncos win their last games, in a three-way tie with 9-7, does the steelers win over broncos count as a tiebreaker, or it doesn’t matter and steelers lose out on worst conference record of the three teams?

  • Greg

    The only reason you are ranked ahead of Houston and Tennessee is because they are behind Jax in their division…the tiebreaker in multiple team situations eliminates all but the top team in each division using H2H or Division records. If Pit tied with either Tenn or Houston in a multiple team situation they would lose…They need a lot of help

  • Nick

    I like the Steelers chances of making the playoffs, we win the last 2 games Balt and Miami. Jets will lose a least one of there last 2 maybe both against Colts and Bengals. Broncos will lose this week at Philly and Jax will lose this week at NE. That sounds all very likley to happen.

    Go Steelers

  • Ryan

    Don’t stop believing!

  • Todd

    I believe if the the Steelers and Ravens are both 9-7 and they are involved in a three or more team tie then the Ravens would eliminate the Steelers because the first step in a three or more team tie is:

    Three or More Clubs
    (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

    Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

  • awt

    We have same conf record but lose tiebreaker to Houston on common opponents (we will be 2-3 v. Ten, Oak, Cin and Mia; Hou will be 3-2 v those same opponents).

  • Chuff Daddy

    I know of two scenarios where PIT could get the sixth seed:

    ** Scenario 1, the easy one:

    PIT (9-7) wins out, and BAL (8-8) loses to Oakland.
    JAX (8-8) lose to either NE or CLE
    NYJ (8-8) lose to either IND or CIN
    HOU (8-8) loses to either MIA or NE

    ** Scenario 2, a little bit harder, but gives PIT another way in on the last weekend even if BAL beats OAK:

    PIT (9-7) wins out
    BAL beats OAK (9-7)
    DEN (8-8) loses to PHI and KC
    JAX (8-8) lose to either NE or CLE
    NYJ (8-8) lose to either IND or CIN
    HOU (8-8) loses to either MIA or NE

    In a three-way tie at 9-7 with DEN and BAL, PIT gets eliminated on the first tie-breaker because they first eliminate a team from any divisions involved:

    Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

    As BAL would be 3-3 in the division, and PIT would be 2-4.

    ** HOU beats PIT in the third breaker based on a 4-1 record against common opponents (TEN, OAK, CIN, MIA) versus PIT’s 2-3 record.

    ** TEN at 9-7 can not win a tie-breaker against PIT, as they would have an even worse conference record, and have lost to PIT.

    Let me know if you see a flaw in this, or see another way in.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Re: Lastly, the Broncos must lose one more game OR Baltimore must lose week 17 to Oakland.

    I believe that if the Broncos, Ravens, and Steelers are tied at 9 and 7, the Steelers get eliminated.

    The Broncos have to lose both of their remaining games if the Ravens beat the Raiders.

  • Rain45

    A very possible scenario… One can only hope1 GO STEELERS!

  • Chuff Daddy

    Re: assuming the jets,jags and broncos lose their next games and both ravens & broncos win their last games, in a three-way tie with 9-7, does the steelers win over broncos count as a tiebreaker, or it doesn’t matter and steelers lose out on worst conference record of the three teams?

    The Steelers would lose out, BION, because they have a worst division record than the Ravens.

    Seriously:

    TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

    Three or More Clubs

    (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

    1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Re: The only reason you are ranked ahead of Houston and Tennessee is because they are behind Jax in their division…the tiebreaker in multiple team situations eliminates all but the top team in each division using H2H or Division records. If Pit tied with either Tenn or Houston in a multiple team situation they would lose…They need a lot of help

    I think if PIT ties with TEN in a mutli-team situation not involving BAL, PIT can win a tie-breaker with TEN. The problem is, they would lose to just about any other team.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Re: I like the Steelers chances of making the playoffs, we win the last 2 games Balt and Miami. Jets will lose a least one of there last 2 maybe both against Colts and Bengals. Broncos will lose this week at Philly and Jax will lose this week at NE. That sounds all very likley to happen.

    Even if this happens, if the Ravens beat the Raiders, and the Broncos beat the Chiefs, the Steelers are eliminated.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Re: We have same conf record but lose tiebreaker to Houston on common opponents (we will be 2-3 v. Ten, Oak, Cin and Mia; Hou will be 3-2 v those same opponents).

    If the Texans finish at 9 and 7, they will be 4-1 against common opponents.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Pittsburgh still could get a 5 seed, if the Broncos and Ravens lose both of their games, and the Jaguars, Jets, and Texans each lose at least one.

  • Chuff Daddy

    The bottom line is, if the Steelers are tied with the Ravens for the sixth spot–alone or with any other team or teams–they are eliminated.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Re: I checked yahoo’s playoff generator. Go ahead and make Denver 9-7,Pittsburgh 9-7, Baltimore 9-7, Tennessee 8-8, and Houston 9-7 and then Denver is in at 6th and Baltimore is in at the 5th…But, change a seemingly irrelevant Tennessee game against Seattle to a win and magically this changes the Steelers to the 6th seed.

    I say, buggy software.

    Here is how it plays out.

    Steelers can’t win the fifth seed in the above, as they would be eliminated based on their division record.

    If the Ravens then don’t get the 5 seed, Pittsburge would be eliminated from the sixth seed too for the same reason.

    If the Ravens get the 5 seed, and the Steelers are tied with Broncos, Titans, and Texans:

    1. First, Houston gets eliminated based on division record.
    2. Then, assuming the Broncos ninth win is against KC, they get in based on conference record.
    3. If the Broncos, Steelers, and Titans are ties at 9-7, and the Broncos 9th win is against the Eagles…who the heck knows?!

  • Pete

    I think if the Steelers, Ravens, and Broncos are the only teams at 9-7, the Steelers are good.

    Baltimore would get the #5 seed (Steelers eliminated by division – Baltimore beat Denver).

    Then it reverts to the beginning with Pittsburgh getting the #6 because they beat Denver.

  • Chuff Daddy

    Here is the 5th-seed scenario:

    PIT (9-7) wins out
    BAL (8-8) loses to OAK
    DEN (8-8) loses to PHI and KC
    JAX (8-8) lose to either NE or CLE
    NYJ (8-8) lose to either IND or CIN
    HOU (8-8) loses to either MIA or NE

    I wonder what kind of odd Vegas would give on that bet?

  • Haukman

    Yep basically the Steelers need either Baltimore or Denver to lose their remaing games assuming the Steelers win out. More than likey it will come down to either Oakland beating Baltimore or Kansas city beating Denver (which is a long shot at best). I think the other teams losing at least once, that are at 7-7, is very likely. So think of how ironic it would be that either Oakland and Kansas City end up being the reason we get in since they both beat us basically on the last play of the game. It’s hard to imagine that if we could of just won 1 of those 5 games that we lost in a row we probably would get in for sure without that much help, of course assuming we win out.

  • weezy

    lol like the ravens are going to lose against the chiefs… this just isn’t our year, lets get it into our heads.

    weezy

  • Ken Robertson

    Folks:

    I have loved the Steelers since I was 4 years old. Am now 42. BUT, we blew it this year. Loosing to KC, Oakland, and Cleveland AND loosing to Cinn TWICE. We do not deserved to be in the playoffs and we won’t. Let’s hope for next year.

  • Chuff Daddy

    I missed this way the Steelers get in, and it is the most probable, IMO.

    PIT (9-7) wins out.
    BAL (9-7) splits
    DEN (9-7) splits
    JAX, NYJ, and HOU each lose at least one.

    Pittsburgh gets the 6th seed. (PIT gets the 6th seed based on their win over DEN.)

    So, this weekend, if

    PIT beats BAL
    PHI beats DEN
    NE beats JAX
    IND beats NYJ
    MIA beats HOU

    Pittsburgh controls their own destiny in week 17. Beat MIA, and they are in no matter what DEN and BAL do.

    If someone already said this, and I told them they were wrong, my apologies.

  • Scott

    Can someone please role all of these scenarious up and say which one is the one? We all agree that the Steelers must win out. That play yesterday with 3 seconds left was crazy, but there is life in this old beast.

  • mtrico

    I think the Texans need to lose one as well for the Steelers to make it if Baltimore and Denver also finish 9-7.

  • admin

    I forgot the Texans needing to lose or tie in scenario #1. This has been edited. Isn’t this fun?

  • SteelerJoe

    With everything that can happen for the wildcard I’m not even going to worry about anything until Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. Which leads me to my question for this group. When is Polamalu coming back. The cold truth is our secondary is quite awful. I would love to know the percentage of the pass plays that were targeted at Willie Gay against the Packers (they obviously saw something on tape). How many mental errors did Carter have (the middle of the field is open when he is in the game). The run defense is there which they will need against rice and the ravens.
    Also did anyone notice how scared Tomlin was to kick the ball deep on kickoffs, I can’t say I blame him, but we give the opposing teams such good field position.

  • admin

    Polamalu is likely still another week away. I think best case scenario is to be ready for Dolphins game. Tomlin will update his condition on Tuesday.

  • Jared

    The question to sum up this debate is what is the timing of the seeding.

    If the 5 and 6 seeds are determined independently, the Steelers would only need ONE Denver loss. The three teams would be considered for the 5 seed with the Steelers thrown out first because of division record and the Broncos out second because of strength of victory I think. Then, for the 6 seed, the Steelers win head-to-head against Broncos.

    On the other hand, if the seeding is done at the same time, the Steelers would be thrown out once for divisional record and not considered again…

    Anyone?

  • weezy

    i just want ryan clark to destroy ray rice. he got mendenhall hurt now it’s time to destroy him on live t.v.

  • Chuff Daddy

    When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card.

  • Nemesis

    If we bang up Flacco and the boys, perhaps, just perhaps they won’t be sittin so pretty when they face Oakland in week 17. We gotta have faith. Troy comes back anything’s possible, look at our opponent in SB 43 last year. They were 9-7 as well. If we can just sneak in there, the playoffs are a whole new ball game. Steeler pride, nationwide!

  • Joey

    Ok so assuming that the Jets lose to Indy, the Jags lose to NE, The Dolphins beat Houston, and Denver loses to Phily (which I think will all happen), and we win out and beat the Ravens and Miami, will we be in even if Denver beats KC? Do we or do we not win the tiebreaker with Denver if us, Denver and Baltimore all finish at 9-7?

  • admin

    Yes, we own the head to head tiebreaker with Denver. It would be us and the Ravens assuming they beat Oakland week 17.

  • t1mmy10

    it’s also important to take into account strength of victory. ex) if ravens lose to the raiders & the broncos lose to eagles but the jets win out, it would go to strength of victory between the jets & broncos. we’d be rooting for the jets to win so that our head-to-head victory against the broncos would matter, giving us the 6th seed.

    easiest way to say this is we want (besides us beating the ravens):
    Titans over chargers
    Patriots over Jags
    Dolphins over Texans
    Philly over Denver
    Indy over Jets

    if all that happens (which is very possible) we clinch the 6th seed with a win over the dolphins in week 17. NO help needed.

  • Chuff Daddy

    OK, so what does everyone think is the biggest obstacle?

    1. Ravens beating Steelers
    2. Dolphins beating Steelers
    3. Broncos beating Eagles and Chiefs
    4. Jaguars beating Patriots and Browns
    5. Jets beating Colts and Bengals
    6. Texans beating Miami and Patiots

    I don’t think any are probable, but…

  • weezy

    lil weezy will jack up chad ocho stinko in playoffs

  • Nemesis

    Pittsburgh Tribune Review has posted this (I Believe) accurate playoff clinching scenario article….

    http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_658881.html

  • Nemesis

    Check this playoff scenario genrator from Yahoo. I think it’s pretty accurate…

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=50001041&16=55155515

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