Week 12 is now in the books and I have compiled the TOX numbers for the week and we had the stat take a hit as teams with a plus 2 TOX went 7-4 overall for a low 64% win rate. The Dolphins, Jaguars, Eagles and Rams all bucked the stat this week.
Year to date in head to head games the plus 2 teams are 92-25 and dips the winning percentage down to 79%, just 1% less than the expected 80% number.
Teams with a mere positive TOX stat went 9-5 this week. Teams with a positive turnover differential went 8-5 overall and teams with a positive explosive play differential went 10-5 this week.
The Bills Jets game is an interesting example of how just one more explosive play to Steve Johnson late in the game would have not only put them plus 2 TOX wise for the game, but likely would have won the game had he not dropped the ball. Johnson looked almost certain to score on that play.
The Texans may have won off the bye, but the loss of yet another quarterback will certainly make the task that much greater to create explosive plays. Their TOX fall from grace might be disturbing to watch. It will be up to the defense to likely win games now going forward.
The year to date numbers show the Steelers climbing even further up the rankings thanks to their plus 3 TOX this week. The only thing that has held them back this year has been the lack of turnovers, as the explosive plays have been there all season. The Cowboys, Packers, Raiders and Falcons remain dangerous in my opinion. Yes I know the Packers is a no-brainer.
The Steelers play the Bengals Sunday and it should make for another good game based on the TOX stats. The turnover battle will likely win this game like it did a few weeks back.
If you are just finding this, make sure to look back at the links below to get a better understanding of what the TOX stat actually is and how it works. Week 1 is a great place to start as it also includes a video explaining it all.
Week 1 TOX Stats
Week 2 TOX Stats
Week 3 TOX Stats
Week 4 TOX Stats
Week 5 TOX Stats
Week 6 TOX Stats
Week 7 TOX Stats
Week 8 TOX Stats
Week 9 TOX Stats
Week 10 TOX Stats
Week 11 TOX Stats
|Team||Pass 20+||Run 20+||Pass 20+||Run 20+||20+ DIFF||TO DIF||TOX||W/L|
|New Orleans Saints||7||2||4||0||5||2||7||W|
|Green Bay Packers||4||0||1||1||2||3||5||W|
|St. Louis Rams||4||0||1||2||1||1||2||L|
|New York Jets||1||1||1||0||1||-2||-1||W|
|San Diego Chargers||2||1||2||2||-1||0||-1||L|
|San Francisco 49ers||1||0||1||0||0||-1||-1||L|
|Kansas City Chiefs||2||0||3||0||-1||-2||-3||L|
|New England Patriots||4||0||7||1||-4||1||-3||W|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||3||0||2||4||-3||-1||-4||L|
|New York Giants||4||0||7||2||-5||-2||-7||L|
2011 YTD TOX
|San Francisco 49ers||24|
|Green Bay Packers||11|
|New Orleans Saints||9|
|New York Giants||0|
|New York Jets||0|
|San Diego Chargers||-1|
|New England Patriots||-6|
|St. Louis Rams||-17|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-23|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-25|