2014 NFL Draft: Wide Receiver Drop Percentage Rates From Greg Peshek

Greg Peshek of secondroundstats.com does a great job of charting college football metrics and on Wednesday, he released the 2013 drop rate percentages for several of the top wide receivers in the 2014 draft class on Twitter.

Peshek also stated on Twitter that he only counts passes that he deemed as easy catches as drops, so now you know his level of subjectivity. He goes on to say that by grading drops that way, quarterback quality shouldn’t factor into the numbers.

As far as his previous studies on drops, Peshek states that a low drop rate doesn’t necessarily mean a receiver will have good hands in NFL. However, he does add that receivers with bad hands almost never got better at the next level.

As far as the drop percentages that you see below go, Peshek deems a number between 6-9% as being questionable and any percentage higher than that as being a red flag.

If you are curious about the drops the Florida State wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin had in 2013, I recently dedicated an entire post to that subject complete with animated gifs.

 

Greg Peshek 2013 College WR Drop Rates

PlayerCollegeDrop %
*Martavis BryantClemson12.50%
*Marqise LeeSouthern California12.31%
L’Damian WashingtonMissouri12.07%
*Donte MoncriefOle Miss11.11%
*Kelvin BenjaminFlorida State9.68%
*Paul RichardsonColorado8.89%
Jalen SaundersOklahoma7.94%
Jordan MatthewsVanderbilt7.69%
*Odell Beckham Jr.LSU6.45%
*Allen RobinsonPenn State5.43%
*Brandin CooksOregon State4.69%
*Sammy WatkinsClemson4.49%
*Mike EvansTexas A&M4.29%
*Jarvis LandryLSU2.50%

I am, I'm me. 40 something, retired and a life long Steelers fan.
  • HiVul

    Wow, well I guess this just affirms what we already knew, if we take Benjamin we’re gonna have to live with some drops. Mike Evans looks like a beast at that size and with those hands. I’m starting to buy into what Dave Te’Thomas said on your show about Manziel just being a product of Mike Evans. If you’ve got a 6’5″ target that can catch everything you throw at him, how are you not going to be successful? I wonder what Eric Ebron’s drop rate is?

  • Jeff Anoble

    Allen Robinson dismissed by many fans not wanting us to draft him, but there he is top 5 in least drops. I love Mathews but steelers at least on surface not showing much interest. Moncrief’s drop rate higher then I thought.

  • Biggie

    That fits in well with who I want. Watkins/Evans out of reach. Beckham is late Rd 1 to me, don’t want to reach for him because I like Robinson, Matthews in Rd 2. Want nothing to do with Benjamin as he is late Rd 1, early Rd 2 with to many issues. Lee and Bryant made me nervous prior to this article due to drops. Only surprise to me is Moncrief. I like him but his drop percentage is awful high.

  • Paddy

    Steelers like Cooks a lot. He could team up with fellow Beaver Markus Wheaton

  • moderatelysane

    One caveat to these statistics is the types of passes that the receiver is asked to catch. Sammy Watkins saw a tremendously high number of bubble screens, etc, so he damn well better not drop any. Mike Evans saw more downfield and jump balls, as did Benjamin, so those would inherently be tougher to catch because you’re on the move. One who really jumps out is Brandon Cooks. If I’m not mistaken, he’s a real route runner with over the top speed, and he has a low drop rate. Not bad. Another is Jordan Matthews, who got roughly half of his team’s targets and caught 93% of them despite being double- and triple-teamed. Impressive stuff. I hope the lack of noise about him is just the FO being sneaky. We apparently did have a presence at the Vandy pro day.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Interesting that Robinson and a few others are up there, but Davonte Adams, who is definitely in the top 10, is not.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    As a PSU fan, I wouldn’t take Robinson before the 3rd with this WR draft class.

  • Jeff Anoble

    If the steelers ever wanted the reincarnation of Hines Ward, Jarvis Landry would fit the bill.

  • Andrew

    I’ve liked Moncrief all off-season, but that stat is alarming

  • Andrew

    I think your comparison is spot-on. In comparing Landry to Beckham, Landry isn’t as quick or does not jump as high, but the low percentage of drops is attractive.

  • Brian Tollini

    Jarvis Landry keeps getting higher up on my list. Not fast, not flashy, just catches the ball. See Ward, Hines.

  • Iron Cadet

    as a steelers fan, i would take him in the 2nd

  • Doug Sawyer

    OK,once again this is not giving an accurate picture of the stat…If one takes into consideration where these catches are made that gives a better understanding of what is going on …Watkins and Evans have a high number of their catches in the 5 yards or less range.In other words high percentage catch range.A guy like Benjamin catches an even distribution of passes between the 5 yrds or less,the 10 yrds or less,the 20 yards or less and the over 20…Watkins on the other hand had about 40% of his catches in the 5 yrds or less range…in other words high percentage passes translate in to high percentage catches as we see in the above chart

  • Matt Manzo

    Where’s DAdams?

  • Doug Sawyer

    exactly

  • Matt Manzo

    I think Ebrons was a little worse than KBs?

  • Doug Sawyer

    it is in the 11% range

  • Iron Cadet

    if you watch game tape of the guys with the highest drop rate, Bryant, Lee, Benjamin, Moncrief, you will have a very difficult time justifying them. Evans probably has the best hands in the draft, second only to be maybe Landry who just catches everything. and watkins definitely has better hands than bryant, moncrief, lee, or benjamin.

  • Doug Sawyer

    I don’t agree at all Cooks has the best hands in the draft based on range of catches number of catches and the end result.Evan’s had a high number of his catches in the 5 yrds or less or the 10 yrds or less range and when compared to Benjamin who has a higher distribution of deeper passes that translates into a very close expectancy to catch the ball between them…this isn’t rocket science it’s easier to catch the ball 5 yrds away from the line of scrimmage than it is 15 yrds down the field …as it is also easier to catch a ball 15 yrds down field than it is 25+ yrds…what you want is a WR who can handle distribution at all ranges

    Evans has slightly better hands but the percentage of easy catches is higher he had 51% of his catches between screens and 5 yrds or less.Benjamin had 25% of his catches in the 5 yrds or less range

  • Doug Sawyer

    go to the roto world Peshek top 4 WR metric to read the break down more clearly

  • Iron Cadet

    how does the distance equal a harder catch? good thing this isnt rocket science, what makes a catch difficult is the placement, the spin, the power, and the defender. if you throw me a wobbly fast ball at 10 yards, its much harder to catch than an accurate 25 yard pass. the longer pass is harder to throw because of the power it takes and the accuracy, not necessarily to catch.

  • Doug Sawyer

    are you serious? why do you think they consider a screen a higher percentage pass? the less time in the air and the shorter the distance always equal easier catch.You have less chance for the ball to be contested less adjusting to the ball in flight less adjusting to coverage in routes and less accuracy of the ball down field…I’m not saying in any shape or form has Benjamin not dropped easy catches …he has but the finial numbers presented in the above chart are not an accurate understanding of a drop % because the are not placed in context of who had the most high percentage passes thrown at them

  • Iron Cadet

    Yes I’m serious and i don’t feel like retyping everything all over again. The distance is not the only thing that factors into a catches difficulty. If I toss a ball to you when you are 10 yards away, that’s an easier catch than if I pelt you with it when you are right in front of me.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Fair enough. I just think there will be better options on the board in the 2nd.

  • Doug Sawyer

    well then you are seriously wrong…go to Grantland and read the Pass Atlas A Map of Where NFL Quarterbacks Throw the Ball …close passes are easier in terms of throwing and catching

  • Doug Sawyer

    also note that passer rating is derived from passes of 12 yrds per attempt or longer …because those are more difficult

  • k33ger

    Just a note, this is only showing drop rate of “easy” passes. Is there a comparable statistic for catch rate of “difficult” passes? One thing I keep seeing people talk about for Benjamin is that he goes up for the ball and targets it. That’s what makes him attractive. But if you tell me a receiver has a low drop rate on easy passes, but doesn’t make many splash catches, vs a receiver with many splash catches and a not-so-good drop rate on the easy ones, I would rather take the splash catches.

    My main concern with Benjamin is does he get good separation? In many of the highlights I saw, he doesn’t seem to get very good separation, he’s just so big and aggressive he wins more than not.

    Whatever receiver we draft, it has to be someone who can separate.

  • Iron Cadet

    I hope someone great falls too. who would u rather us take? Besides like evans and Watkins haha

  • Iron Cadet

    It’s like arguing with a monkey. If you think that distance makes the biggest change in difficulty for a pass then good for u. But arguing this is pointless

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    I would take Beckham, Cooks, Adams or Moncrief before Robinson, though I have him right behind them.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    A screen is a high percentage pass because of the difficulty in covering it, not the ease of catching it.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Benjamin is not a great route runner at this point, which could explain the lack of separation.

  • steelster

    It would be nice to see where adams and latimer are on this list.

  • Iron Cadet

    really? i would definetly take beckham before him, but moncrief has a lot or drops, and then im not liking cooks’ size but he is a beast.

  • Iron Cadet

    thank you good sir!

  • steelster

    As much as I like cooks he can only play at the slot receiver in the nfl. Beckham and Benjamin can play both positions. If the steelers draft cooks it forces wheaton to be on the outside. I think wheaton is better suited for the slot.

  • Doug Sawyer

    which is directly related to catching it …an uncontested catch is an easier catch.. so is one where you move 3 feet turn and catch a ball…as compared to running full speed in a timing pattern having to catch the ball while moving in press coverage …it is also harder to throw the ball at that guy and the two are inseparable

  • Doug Sawyer

    LOL

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Moncrief’s drops are a concern. and I don’t have him much above Robinson, but I think he is a better route runner and neither has good speed. Size is probably less important to me in a WR than it is to most people if the talent is there, which is why I would take Cooks first. Adams and Beckham I think are just better all around.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    False correlation. Just because a longer pass CAN be contested, does not mean that all of them are.

    Conversely, screen passes can also be more difficult to catch as a lot of QB’s can’t throw them effectively. They lack touch on the passes and tend to throw them much harder than is needed.

  • Steelers12328882

    wow surprised to see Lee with that bad a percentage.

  • Iron Cadet

    The only reason I would like a yall receiver is to help us in the redzone. Going back and watching our games it was just obvious that we could’ve the ball down the field but we struggled inside the 10. Ben threw it too high for brown a lot too. But I also think we need to adress defense mainly, I mean we lost to the raiders…

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Right. I think a tall WR is important, I just don’t want it to be the primary driver that high in the draft. We still have J. Brown who has good size, and both Moncrief and Adams have 39 inch verticals and OK size. Cooks and Beckham are smaller, but they also posted decent verticals, which helps offset the size. I also expect to see us pick a bigger pass catching TE later on, which could provide the size.

    I think we mostly go defense as well though, as I expect 2 CBs, a DE (maybe 2 DL) and at least one LB in this draft.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    With the situation they had at USC and the injuries he fought this season, I’m not. I don’t think it’s a great reflection of his skills.

  • RedCarpetDefense

    What if Marquise Lee is there on the board when the Steelers pick in 2nd rd? Assuming they went another position in the 1st.

  • Iron Cadet

    alright now i have to ask haha, who do you have us taking in the first 3? realisticly

  • Iron Cadet

    also read the article again, the percentage only includes passes that were deemed “easy catches”. win

  • Iron Cadet

    the article says that the percentage only includes “easy passes”

  • Doug Sawyer

    Win what?…you are clearly not looking at the conclusions

  • Doug Sawyer

    a monkey that makes you look like a mental midget

  • Doug Sawyer

    are you not hearing me or do you just not get that running a 20 yard route and catching a ball in secondary coverage is harder than making a catch a yard behind the line of scrimmage with a 5-7 yard cushion? did you even see the article I referred to about where most passes are thrown?
    clue:they’re short passes…because they have a higher % of success ….even bother to consider why passer rating factors passes of only 12+ yards or more?It’s because
    the short range passes are way too easy …I seriously wonder about football IQ here sometime but maybe I should just be more irritated that it’s a bunch of blowhards who love to hear themselves argue about points they can’t defend with evidence

  • steelster

    doug, and the short passes also help big ben from hanging onto the ball too long and where he gets sacked.

  • Iron Cadet

    Good retort

  • Doug Sawyer

    what does that have to do with it being a difficult pass to catch? …the whole point is short passes and screens are high% passes because they are easier to execute

  • Iron Cadet

    Good luck with that. Seems like nobody agrees with you. But just to be clear did you mean a midget with mental problems, and imaginary midget, a small minded person, or was it just a random choice of words? I’m 6″5 and in medical school so either way.

  • Doug Sawyer

    who cares if your club of flunkies(2 people) doesn’t understand that screens and short range passes are universally called high percentage passes because they are easier to execute…I’d be freaking embarrassed to be defending your point

  • Iron Cadet

    So easily embarrassed, possibly due to other insecurities I’m guessing. As I have said before arguing with you is pointless, yet entertaining. Feel free to continue but I have other stuff to do right now buddy.

  • Doug Sawyer

    it’s entertaining because your a troll who just wants to argue has no defensible point or evidence to backup his BS position…you seriously have hubris problems

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Realistically, I see something like the following:
    1: Gilbert, Dennard or Fuller
    2: Tuitt if he falls, otherwise Moncrief or Adams
    3: Robinson if we get Tuitt, otherwise a DE like Clarke

  • Doug Sawyer

    was the one that clearly applied

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    I hear you, there are just serious flaws in your logic. You are attempting to simplify multi-variable scenarios into single premises to support your argument.

    A wise person once said that when a man sees idiots everywhere he looks, he is probably looking in the wrong place.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Do you understand that easier to execute and easier to catch are not one and the same? You seem to conflate two different concepts and awful lot…

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    Actually, it’s not. The point was that the statistics above are already normalized to remove bias in terms of route and quality of the throw. Your entire argument about them is in fact moot.

  • Doug Sawyer

    and for your next stupid human trick I’m sure we can all sit back and listen to you explain how handing the ball off and laterals are the exact same difficulty …of course based on your many years as a Cheetos stained white T-shirt armchair QB

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    I got news for you, he isn’t the troll. Everyone here knows you are the president of the Kelvin Benjamin fan club and will come up with all kinds of flawed justifications for why…

  • Doug Sawyer

    no he’s a troll for defending such a poor argument because of an irrational fear of being wrong…like a lot of the yinzers who post up here…what are you going to do if they draft Benjamin?quit?I like the kid…he’s pretty much seen as a top pick in the draft…only thing trollish is people hating him or coming up with BS rationale to why they harbor such feelings…no different to me than the same idiots who say Cowher is a better coach than Tomlin…I’ll bet you’re one of them too

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    I won’t touch the “poor argument” comment. I used to think you were being obstinate, now I just think you lack understanding of how cogent arguments are structured.

    “Pretty much”? No. By some he is seen as one of the top three WRs, but that is by no means universal, as many have him with a second round grade. You are the only person I have seen recently that seems to think he is the top WR for whatever reason.

    As for BS rationale, on one hand you have an analyst charting all of the routes and pointing out that a normalized (that is, only counting those that should have been caught) drop rate over 9% is a red flag, stating :

    “From my own studies, low drop rate doesn’t necessarily mean good hands
    in NFL, but bad hands almost never got better in transition to NFL”

    On the other, we have you ignoring that normalization and making all kinds of fallacious arguments and ad hominem attacks in an attempt to rationalize the 9.68% drop rate that his favorite player posted.

    Step back a moment, think about it, and they state again which one is the BS rationale.

  • http://pittsburghsportsinat.blogspot.com/ bgsteelfan

    That’s and interesting question. For me it would really depend on who else is out there. His durability concerns me a bit.

  • SteelersDepot

    You guys need to knock it off. State your case without insults and just move on.

  • Iron Cadet

    top pick in the draft? you are joking right? nobody in this world but you sees him as pretty much a top pick in the draft. all you do is go off saying how we will pick him for sure and everyone who says otherwise will see. but when it came time to put a little money on it, you had other plans. im sure your wifi just wasnt working correctly though, nobody would be that arrogant to tell everyone else that they are so wrong, but then not have the balls to stand by their point when it counts. that, would be truly embarrassing.

  • Iron Cadet

    my next stupid human trick? think before you type, also someone having a different opinion than you would not be some magical trick, it would be what most people call being correct. you do realize that im not going to any of these sites that you keep telling me to right? but im sure you will post another site for some reason. hey why dont you go to google and type in 2 girls 1 cup?? at least they spew less crap than you do.

  • Iron Cadet

    im working on it, this guy though…

  • Iron Cadet

    i would love that draft. i love Dennard’s cover skills, that no fly zone was for real. but fuller fits our system a lot better and could maybe be there in a trade down. Tuitt or hageman in 2 if either falls would be great too and robinson at 3 would be a steal.

  • steelster

    no way robinson falls to the end of the 3rd round. If the steelers want a talented receiver it will have to be in the first 2 rounds.

  • Iron Cadet

    i doubt he falls that far also, but we can hope, keenan allen did last year.

  • craig newhouser

    Rooney was at Vanderbilt pro day though. Maybe they ate being sly. All the talk is about Beckham, Benjamin , or Evans.

  • shawn

    i see a lot more separation from Benjamin than Evans … thats for sure .. I also think he uses his body much better too !

  • shawn

    great point on the hard catches … which i think Benjamin does a good job of which makes up for his higher (although not that high) drops !

  • shawn

    ya i was very curious with Adams too … but lets remind ourselves this is all subjective … i count tough catches right up there with easy catches, so this only tells half the story for me !